With just six at-large bids in Division III, any two-loss team, such as UW-Platteville, is going to be on the bubble until the last minute. Photo by Steve Frommell, d3photography.com

By Pat Coleman
D3sports.com

As we enter Week 11, the final weekend of the 2016 Division III football regular season, there are only a couple of at-large playoff spots really up in the air. We only get six true at-large teams, and the way things sit today, four of them are pretty clear. However, there's some football left to be played before we learn who plays where in the Field of 32 on the road to Stagg Bowl XLIV. The selection show streams online (you can find a link on D3football.com) at 6 p.m. ET Sunday.

Here's how we went about creating this projection. Obviously, there are still some games left to be played. This bracket makes some base assumptions. For example, higher-ranked teams in the NCAA's regional rankings win out, specifically: 

• Alfred defeats St. John Fisher to finish 10-0
• Mount Union defeats John Carroll to finish 10-0
• None of the at-large leaders lose on Saturday

We also presume that teams who need to win to wrap up automatic bids do so this weekend, including:

• Wesley defeating William Paterson
• Wittenberg defeating Allegheny
• Rose-Hulman defeating Earlham
• Lakeland defeating Rockford

We did not project winners in a few conferences where the winner is not as obvious, or not as material to the seeding. The SAA is a three-team battle with all three teams having reasonable chances. (If Washington U. wins the automatic bid, then the matchup would be different because of geography.) Randolph-Macon would have to beat its archrival to avoid a tiebreaker in the ODAC and the MAC could go to Albright if Stevenson loses on Saturday. 

There are 25 conferences with automatic bids, and two conferences and a small number of independents without one. The 25 automatic bids are referred to by the NCAA as Pool A and the rest are Pool B. The Pool B group (American Southwest Conference, Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference) has one bid to fight for, and that will go to Mary Hardin-Baylor, regardless of whether UMHB wins or loses on Saturday, in fact.

The remaining six bids, known as Pool C, are true at-larges that any team in either pool can receive. The committee traditionally will sit down with a board that includes the top at-large team from each regional ranking, comparing the four teams head-to-head, then selecting one to put in the field. The committee considers the usual criteria: results vs. Division III teams, strength of schedule, results vs. regionally ranked teams, head-to-head results and results vs. common opponents. As we get closer to the end of the process, though, the committee can consider non-Division III games as well. And with just six spots and more than twice as many candidates, expect every piece of data possible to be used.

Case Western Reserve hasn't played a great schedule, but it would be good enough to get in the field at 10-0. Photo by James Byard, WUSTL Photos

We're going to fast-forward through most of the Pool C process. The top team in each region on the board include UW-Oshkosh, Wheaton (Ill.) and Hardin-Simmons, and all three of those are at-large locks this year. Putting Wheaton in reveals Case Western Reserve on the board and if Case wins on Saturday, it will get in. The committee won't leave an unbeaten team with a reasonable schedule home. 

After those first four, there's a pretty high drop-off in the confidence factor of the remaining two picks. St. John's sits next on the board from the West and right now, their strength of schedule is pretty average. That will increase when the Johnnies play at Concordia-Moorhead on Saturday, however, and we feel pretty confident in saying that with a win on Saturday, St. John's will get an at-large bid.

Beyond this, it gets even more difficult to discern. The mock board contains UW-Platteville, a two-loss team from the East (remember, we projected St. John Fisher would lose) or possibly Frostburg State leaping everyone into the top East spot, Wabash (since we projected John Carroll would pick up a second loss) and Muhlenberg.

Muhlenberg is looking at being 9-1 with a strength of schedule below .500, with only one result against a regionally ranked opponent (the loss to Johns Hopkins). Frostburg State will be over .500 with only one result against a regionally ranked opponent (the loss to Wesley -- beating Salisbury would push Salisbury out of the regional rankings). St. John Fisher, with two losses, could also be the East's team on the board at this point, or Salisbury if it beats Frostburg. In the North, Wabash would likely be on the board, with an SOS well short of .500. UW-Platteville would have two losses but a strength of schedule that is pretty impressive.

If the board is Muhlenberg, Wabash, UW-Platteville and St. John Fisher, we'll have two one-loss teams with a poor SOS and two two-loss teams with high SOS. The committees of the past have gone both ways on this and it's impossible to project on any given day. However, we're partial to getting the best teams in, and some committees of the past have been as well. With that in mind, we are mocking up this bracket with UW-Platteville, to see what it looks like.

There are travel restrictions to consider when it comes to creating the bracket. The NCAA pays for all team travel in the playoffs, but with the caveat that as many first-round games must involve travel of less than 500 miles as possible. If the committee can create a bracket with one first-round flight, that's what they'll do. And that's what we're doing here, which means that UMHB and HSU will play for the fourth time in two seasons. Redlands has to fly somewhere and someone has to fly to get to Linfield, so those two will be matched up. 

If Huntingdon makes the field and Washington U. does as well, that is going to trigger another flight, because the only place Huntingdon can drive in the first round is to Berry or Centre, the other two contenders for the SAA title.

The committee wants to pick the top four teams and put them as No. 1 teams in their own separate brackets whenever possible. Typically of late, that has meant two South teams, or two West teams, getting No. 1 seeds while the East does not. But this year, it seems that three top seeds could come from the West. Here’s how that would work out:

We’ve picked Mary Hardin-Baylor, UW-Whitewater, Mount Union and St. Thomas as No. 1 seeds. And then we also want to pick four No. 2 seeds to match up with them. 

Here's what that bracket looks like. Scroll down for a discussion of some what-if scenarios.

If you're on mobile, here's a link to download it.

We try to move teams around as much as the map will allow. Husson can only play at two possible teams within 500 miles, and that's Western New England and Bridgewater State. Since Thomas More and Case Western Reserve did not play each other in the PAC schedule this season, the committee should match them up in the first round of the playoffs, and that's what we've done here. 

What if?

There are some scenarios that would significantly change this bracket:

What if St. John Fisher beats Alfred? Alfred would be a strong Pool C candidate at 9-1, with a good strength of schedule, and would almost certainly be chosen before St. John's. UW-Platteville or any two-loss candidate is in trouble if this, and only this, happens from the possible scenarios.

What if Case Western Reserve loses to Carnegie Mellon? Case is out if this happens. The Spartans' low SOS can't absorb a loss. 

What if Hardin-Simmons loses? Who plays Mary Hardin-Baylor? HSU would likely be out with a loss on Saturday to crosstown rival McMurry. If this happens, someone has to fly in to play UMHB. Could be Huntingdon in the right situation (see above) or it could be another geographically isolated team such as, say, Husson.

What if John Carroll beats Mount Union? Mount Union's actual selection criteria are not great at 9-1, but no committee would keep them out. However, that takes an at-large away from someone else.

We'll do another mock selection live on the air at 11 p.m. Saturday night, after all the results are in. Keep an eye out for the link to listen to that show, coming soon.