Word is Westminster's out

Much has been made of the Westminster College Blue Jays. The fourth-year program is on pace for its second consecutive 9-1 season. I thought they might have a shot at the playoffs. The committee apparently doesn't agree with me.

I've heard from "sources close to the committee" that Westminster isn't even being considered because of its strength of schedule. Usually I wouldn't use an unnamed source, but hey, this isn't life or death here.

Let's take a look at the Blue Jays. They've played Illinois College, Central Methodist, Greenville, Kentucky Wesleyan, Maranatha Baptist, Blackburn and Northwestern (Minn.). Left on the schedule are Colorado College, Bethel (Tenn.) and MacMurray.

I'm going to use Columbus Multimedia's Team Efficiency Ratings here to evaluate these teams. Sure, their system isn't perfect, but what is? Certainly not looking at just wins and losses.

Greenville has a ranking of 87 (29th out of 55 in the North region). Blackburn is 65 (52nd in the region). Maranatha Baptist is 82.1 (41st out of 59 in the West region), with Illinois College right behind (81, 43rd).

Remaining? Colorado College is 50th in the West (75.3 rating) and MacMurray 79.6 (37th in the North).

What we haven't given you is any perspective on what these numbers mean. So let's try. Westminster has a 100.3 rating. Sounds a heck of a lot better, doesn't it? Not really. That places them in a tie for 15th in the North Region, behind four members of the OAC and CCIW.

Non-Division III teams are not ranked by Columbus Multimedia. But Central Methodist (NAIA) is currently 0-7, and Bethel and Northwestern are 2-6. At least Kentucky Wesleyan is 6-2, but they're a Division II non-scholarship team. Kentucky Wesleyan had a harder time with Thomas More (a 4-3 Div. III team they beat in triple overtime) than Westminster (a team they beat 51-35). Both those games were on the road.

Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Oct. 27. This is just a guess. We know the conference races are undecided, but we've plugged in the current leader in the 15 automatic conferences, so don't write me and ask about Hope or Massachusetts Maritime or any of those 4-1 teams in the MIAC. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. And a tough decision that would be -- this was much more difficult than last week, with the losses across the bracket.

The brackets as we knew them are dead, so I've named them by their top seed. These are the teams and the pool they come from, starting with...

The Rowan Bracket
1. Rowan (B)
2. Lycoming (A)
3. Western Connecticut (A)
4. Ithaca (B)
5. Buffalo State (B)
6. RPI (B)
7. New England Football Conference champ (A)

The Trinity Bracket
1. Trinity (A)
2. Hardin-Simmons (B)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Catholic (A)
5. Washington & Jefferson (B)
6. Frostburg State (B)
7. Ohio Northern (C)
The trip to Hardin-Simmons is long for anyone. This spot could also go to either of the conference runners-up in the Mount Union or Central Bracket.

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Wheaton (A)
4. Hanover (A)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. Albion (A)
7. CCIW runner-up or UW-Stevens Point (C)
If UW-Stevens Point makes the field, they would be seeded higher than No. 7.

The Central Bracket
1. Central (A)
2. St. John's (A)
3. Pacific Lutheran (B)
4. UW-La Crosse (A)
5. Wartburg (C)
6. CCIW or MIAC runner-up (C)
7. Aurora (B)

What's new here? Well, I've relented for the moment on Buffalo State, though I'm not sure why they should be only four seeds behind Rowan when they lost to them by five touchdowns. Buffalo State and Ithaca play each other the last week of the season anyway, so one will eliminate the other. I'm giving Buffalo State the bid I've taken from Westminster.

Montclair State? Out. I think that's true even in the unlikely event that they beat Rowan, frankly. And La Verne is out after losing to Redlands. That Pool B bid will go to Aurora, the leader in the Illini-Badger Conference.

What's important to understand is 1) there's three weeks of football yet to be played and 2) we don't know how the committee will act in the first year of this system.

Now to the rumors. It's been said that the committee doesn't know how it's going to match brackets in the semifinals. Also, it's been floated that the committee might not even know where it's going to match up the first and second rounds. That seems unlikely. We do fully expect to see some juggling of the first-round matchups to eliminate air travel, perhaps with an eye to second-round travel possibilities as well.

Taking a further look at Pool B, here's how they rank in the AFCA Top 25. It must be noted that the Top 25 poll has no bearing whatsoever on the selection procedure, but it's one way we have to compare across regions. (Courtesy Pacific correspondent Dennis Anderson)

And of the Pool B teams with two losses or fewer, here's a look at who they have left of their schedule, courtesy Frank Rossi, frossi@law.harvard.edu

3 Undefeated Teams

12 One-Loss Teams

10 Two-Loss Teams

We'll do this again on a weekly basis until the selections are announced Nov. 14. And when we find out more we will post it. These are just our opinions, take them as such.