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Projecting the playoffs
| The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 18 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and seven bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. |
We didn't publish a full Pool B ranking for this one, but Hope took a big nosedive from the large margin of defeat by Albion. And the win wasn't quite enough to get Albion in. We see them as a bubble team, currently ninth for seven spots, just behind Washington U, which beat them head-to-head earlier in the season.
Menlo and Brockport climb into the field with the losses by Hope and Union.
Since we started doing the Pool B Power Ranking, we've already got 70% of the hard decisions about the Field of 28 taken care of. Obviously, the top seven teams in our rankings each week are the ones we think would make the playoffs if the season ended today. (Otherwise, what's the point of doing rankings?)
Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 11. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would (and should) choose and pair the teams.
We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we have traditionally — after their top seed. The NCAA refers to them as Bracket 1, Bracket 2, etc.
The Widener Bracket
1. Widener (A)
2. Rowan (A)
3. RPI (B)
4. Brockport State (B)
5. Westfield State (A)
6. Western Connecticut (A)
7. Christopher Newport (A)
Widener is almost an East team anyway, especially after winning the bracket
last year. This bracket really needed to be strengthened, and I think
the MAC should be in the East anyway, at least until the NESCAC decides
to get off its high horse and play ball with the rest of us. We couldn't
give Rowan a first-round bye but we can give them the last of the 18 automatic
qualifiers in a first-year program. Brockport State is our No. 7 Pool
B team. Couldn't seed the NEFC champ any higher, even though they're 10-0.
The regular 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 matchups work well here geographically.
The Bridgewater Bracket
1. Bridgewater (A)
2. Washington & Jefferson (B)
3. Hardin-Simmons (A)
4. Trinity (A)
5. Mary-Hardin Baylor (C)
6. Menlo (B)
7. Western Maryland (A)
We've already addressed our reasons for Bridgewater being ahead of Washington
& Jefferson in previous weeks. Remember Bridgewater is 1-0 against
playoff teams and W&J is 0-0. We really like these matchups, with
UMHB at Trinity, Menlo playing a return game at Hardin-Simmons, and Western
Maryland, sliding to seventh with the loss to Johns Hopkins, traveling
to Washington & Jefferson. We brought Menlo into this bracket because
they had to fly somewhere. This is where it made the most sense to us
in terms of alleviating the need to fly elsewhere in other brackets.
The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Augustana (A)
3. Wittenberg (A)
4. Thomas More (B)
5. St. Norbert (A)
6. MacMurray (A)
7. Defiance (A)
We could have put Thomas More at No. 2, but it doesn't matter because
of the geography, which will make these matchups necessary: St. Norbert
at Augustana (1999 rematch), MacMurray at Thomas More, Defiance at Wittenberg.
The Central Bracket
1. Central (A)
2. UW-Stevens Point (A)
3. St. John's (A)
4. Pacific Lutheran (B)
5. Linfield (B)
6. UW-Eau Claire (C)
7. Bethel (C)
UW-Stevens Point is seeded ahead of St. John's based on results against
common opponent UW-Eau Claire. We've got no flights in the first round,
which is nearly impossible to do in this day and age in D-III. PLU's light
schedule (only six D-III games) was a worry but they beat playoff team
Linfield, a nice out-of-Division III win (against ranked NAIA team Southern
Oregon) and a strong finish.
Eau Claire and Ohio Nothern are very similar with similar record, similar common opponent result in close losses to Stevens Point, similar opponents' record, but Eau Claire is 1-1 against teams in Pool A and ONU is 0-2. It's very possible the committee will take Ohio Northern over Bethel, in which case we swing St. Norbert back to the Central Bracket, seed them sixth and send them to St. John's.
Montclair State getting routed was its undoing (down 39-7 at the half, 53-14 after three quarters). Their opponents' record was .486. They lost to the only sure playoff team they faced, although they beat Brockport, so if the committee has them in the bracket it will help Montclair. But the strength of schedule won't.
Centre didn't impress Saturday by barely beating Rose-Hulman, and Ohio Wesleyan can't overcome its "strength" of schedule, as discussed last week.