Stagg Bowl XXVIII Predictions

Believe it or not, last year our panel of experts picked the result of Stagg Bowl XXVII correctly, with Pacific Lutheran carrying the day. This year our experts try their hand at predicting the result of Stagg Bowl XXVIII.

We declared Mike Safford and Frank Elia the co-champs, as Mount Union won 10-7.

Pat Coleman, Editor and Publisher
Mount Union 45, St. John's 28
I grew up in Minnesota. I nearly went to St. John's. And I had a great time watching the Johnnies win twice in the playoffs in their own stadium last season, one of the best atmospheres for Division III football. But I can't imagine St. John's will be able to upset the Purple Raiders in their adopted home of Salem Stadium. They say Adam Marino is not at 100%; well, it didn't seem like it last week. Does anyone really think he won't play the entirety of his last game if his team needs him?

I could see 56-7, but I believe the upset potential which has gotten the Johnnies this far will keep the score respectable.

Mark Simon, National columnist
Mount Union 42, St. John's 13
If memory serves, this was the score I picked last season — within a point of the final score of Stagg Bowl XXVII, but unfortunately with the victor picked incorrectly. What the heck, let's give it another go. Cinderella doesn't usually come around in back-to-back years, so we are hard-pressed to give the Johnnie's any chance at an upset win. The two-headed rushing attack of Mount Union could cause the most trouble in this game. If Moore and Pugh are successful on the ground early, the passing game will open up. SJU will get off to a quick start, but will be worn down by a bigger, stronger team midway through the second half.

Fran Elia, NY-NJ correspondent
Mt. Union 31, St. John's 21
It's difficult for me to analyze this game on anything other than previous game scores since I've never had the privilege of seeing either team play, except for Mt. Union's previous Stagg Bowl appearances on television.

Mt. Union is rolling right now, so it's hard to pick against them. Yes, I realize I'm ignoring the fact that West seventh seeds are 1-0 in Stagg Bowl play, but I believe the Purple Raiders will prevail in a game closer than others may predict.

Greg Chandler, Great Lakes correspondent
Mount Union 48, St. John's 24
Mount Union has so many weapons offensively, starting with Smeck at QB, Marino at wideout and Moore in the backfield. I have yet to see a team contain them this year — 70 points in the semifinals — you've got to be kidding! I don't see St. John's being able to stop them.

Don Stoner, Midwest correspondent
St. John's 35, Mount Union 28
Yes, there's the eerie parallel of last year's national champion and this year's national finalist, St. John's (both last year's champ, Pacific Lutheran, and St. John's are the No. 7 seed from the West Region, have played all their playoff games on the road, and have jovial, veteran coaches on the sidelines who have earned national accolades for their unique techniques).

But there's another reason I'm picking St. John's to win the national championship. And it dates back to last season. In the Johnnies' annual "rivalry game" with St. Thomas, starting quarterback Tom Linnemann suffered a severe ankle injury, a season-ender. It would have been the perfect opportunity for him to sulk and be negative about the whole football process. But he didn't. The next week, a 55-0 pasting of my Augsburg Auggies at St. John's, here was Linnemann in the SJU press box, joking it up with the reporters and others assembled in the box, watching the Homecoming win before 8,000 people in the best place in the world to watch a football game, SJU's Clemens Stadium. The fact that his season was over didn't seem to matter much to him. He just was happy to be there and support his team.

This year, Linnemann is back. He's healthy, has been the spark behind this incredible end-of-season run to the national championship game, and he's just a good guy that you want to root for. And the rest of the Johnnies have proven, with their playoff run, that they can claim the biggest victory of them all this Saturday (Plus, I wouldn't be true to my conference, the MIAC, without rooting for St. John's to win the national championship.).

Keith McMillan, Mid-Atlantic correspondent
Mount Union 48, St. John's 24
It's hard to choose between two respected programs like this, and I'm still mad that Rowan's not here, but I have to go with the Mounties. Every time I've seen or listened to them, they've been overwhelming, and there's no reason to think they won't be again. An upset would be nice... but I'm not holding my breath. The only advice I can offer to St. John's: practice with pads this week.

Mike Safford, Pacific correspondent
Mount Union 31, Saint John's 21
Looking at this game from a distance, many people would think that the Purple Raiders should have an easy time — the West No. 7 seed, who once again did not even win its own conference — can't win the National Championship for the second year in a row.

Although I believe that Mount Union will prevail, the Purple Raiders will have a difficult time with the front seven of the Johnnies.  I was amazed at the quickness of the SJU ends when they faced Pacific Lutheran, and their linebackers flow to the ball unlike any I have seen at this level.

The key will be how Tom Linnemann handles the Mount Union pressure and can the Johnnies run the ball.  Nonetheless, it will be great to see John Gagliardi at the Stagg Bowl.

Pat Cummings, D3football.com broadcaster
St. John's 45, Mount Union 42
The situation in this year's Stagg Bowl compared to that of 1999 is striking. St. John's comes in having played four consecutive playoff games on the road, in front of a combined 15,000 spectators (the majority of which were rooting against them), and traveled 5,000 miles by air and land over a five-week period (which is relatively minor compared to PLU last year) to get to Salem.  All of this, not to mention winning all four games.  The Johnnies pounded the only other undefeated team in the nation last week in Abilene, and enter Salem obviously tested. 

The players from Alliance have walked about a combined mile to and from their dorm rooms to Mt. Union Stadium in three weeks, enjoyed the comfort of the cafeteria and their own beds, and have showed up to play against three formidable opponents.  A 70-30 win was convincing, but I will play the numbers.  Despite winning, Mt. Union has shown signs of vulnerability: only scoring 32 points against Wittenberg (their lowest output of the season) and allowing Widener to pick up 30 in defeat, something only John Carroll had been able to do this year, and they scored in the last minute to tighten the loss.  The comforts of home may exist in fantastic fan support in Salem, but this is the first away game for the Purple Raiders since Nov. 4. 

Larry Kehres is the master of the halftime adjustment, and I think this will give John Gagliardi's troops the need to score as much as they can in the first half.  Go deep and don't leave the playbook in the hotel, because a Frosty Westering-like offensive approach will be necessary to stop the Purple Raiders.  I think St. John's needs to stay to the air, and if they can get up by 10 to 14 points at the half, Collegeville's finest will have a chance to hang on in a good one.  Many predict a blowout, but a team without heart doesn't win under the circumstances like the Johnnies have, and the Lutes before them.  QB Tom Linnemann will need to use all of his receivers in a multi-faceted passing attack that relies on misdirection, not just deep sideline patterns that Widener showed last week. Scoring early and often is necessary for this upset of upsets to become reality.