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The first attempt of many
| The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 17 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and eight bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. |
Why does it seem this was easier last year? Maybe the final two weeks of games will clear some things up, such as:
How can we possibly take 17 conference runners-up and decide which three
of them go to the playoffs? We will likely have more than three teams
go 9-1, before even considering Ohio Northern (which could go 8-2) and
Lycoming (8-1).
What do we make of teams that play lots of out-of-region games, as Willamette
did in 1999? Most of the East and West teams in Pool B are in this scenario,
with lots of non-conference dates to fill on the schedule.
What is better, anyway, someone who is 4-0 in regional games, or 7-1?
Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Oct. 31. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. It's the first whack at this, though, and we will hopefully get better at it.
We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we did last year -- after their top seed.
Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings.
The Springfield Bracket
1. Springfield (A)
2. Brockport State (B)
3. Union (B)
4. Buffalo State (B)
5. Rowan (A)
6. Salve Regina/Bridgewater State/Worcester State (A)
7. Wesley (B)
Wesley at Rowan, NEFC champ at Union, Buffalo at Brockport. I'd like to
avoid the rematch, but currently the travel restrictions prohibit it.
Buffalo State doesn't currently rank well in regional wins, after playing
a Division I-AA school, a D-II school, a North Region school and with
a South Region school on the way to end the season. But, they're getting
key wins against other playoff contenders. They've already beaten both
Rowan and Montclair, one of whom will win the NJAC, and can do the same
against Washington & Jefferson on Nov. 11. Their win against Albion
can come in handy if Albion can beat Hope, a bubble Pool B team. Western
Connecticut currently doesn't make the cut on strength of schedule (.435)
and a non-regional win which doesn't get taken into account. Regarding
Hobart, they have beaten Union, which weighs in their favor, but are only
4-1 in regional games and a .415 SOS puts them only ahead of Hartwick
among upstate Pool B contenders. They can play their way in, perhaps,
with wins against 3-13 St. John Fisher and RPI. Ouch.
The Hardin-Simmons
Bracket
1. Hardin-Simmons (A)
2. Trinity (A)
3. Washington & Jefferson (B)
4. Western Maryland (A)
5. Widener (A)
6. ODAC champ (A)
7. Bridgewater (C)
Bridgewater could be replaced by Mary Hardin-Baylor (or Hardin-Simmons,
should UMHB win the head-to-head matchup this weekend) if they lose one
of their last two games, or if Emory & Henry and Catholic lose, giving
Bridgewater the ODAC title. I also expect the committee might move the
pairings around to avoid a Widener/Western Maryland rematch.
The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Millikin (A)
4. Thomas More (B)
5. Chicago (B)
6. HCAC champion (A)
7. Aurora or IBC champion (A)
There's not a lot that's unusual here, actually. Millikin ranks last among
our unbeaten teams because of their weak nonconference schedule (Mount
Union's strength of schedule is .542, Wittenberg .500, Millikin .479).
Thomas More is as close to a lock in Pool B as there is right now, despite
a .453 SOS, while Chicago's SOS (.537) is likely to help make up for them
having one less game. But if another Pool B team (PLU?) comes in out West,
shift St. Norbert into this bracket and Thomas More into the South, where
they could take a reasonably short trip to Washington & Jefferson.
The Central/Wartburg
Bracket
1. Central/Wartburg (A)
2. Bethel (A)
3. UW-Stout (A)
4. Linfield (B)
5. Wartburg/Central (C)
6. St. John's (C)
7. St. Norbert (A)
This was the hardest — especially leaving Pacific Lutheran out.
They can still play their way in and I expect they will make the field.
But currently, only four regional wins against the one regional loss to
Linfield make them a bubble team. Of course, the two IIAC teams will end
up with a nearly .500 SOS because they don't play any non-conference teams.
And either IIAC team could fall out with a Week 11 loss.
What's important to understand is 1) there's two weeks of football yet to be played and 2) one never knows what the committee will actually do.
We'll do this again on a weekly basis until the selections are announced Nov. 14. And when we find out more we will post it. These are just our opinions, take them as such.