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A couple of items become clear
| The playoff basics Twenty-eight teams will form four seven-team brackets and the top team in each will get a bye. And we know the champions of 17 conferences will get an automatic bid to the playoffs. Three runners-up in those conferences will get what are called Pool C bids, and eight bids (Pool B) will go to independents or members of non-automatic conferences. So how will the brackets be formed, who will play whom? That's what we answer each week from here until Selection Sunday. |
Despite the fact that they didn't pick up another regional win last week, and have just one last chance, we feel better about projecting them into the field anyway. There are other Pool B teams with better regional records, we can quote chapter and verse, but too many factors weigh in their favor:
Strong overall record. The Lutes are currently 7-1, with a
chance to go 8-1 (and if they don't win Saturday, count them out). They
made what was arguably a stronger Pool B field at 8-1 last year.
Strong 1999 playoff performance. I hope this is self-explanatory.
New respect for the Northwest. After last year, I think the Northwest
Conference will be looked at more seriously by the committee. Certainly
they will not be put as 6 or 7 seeds anymore.
Non-regional wins. Specifically, a shutout of NAIA No. 15-ranked
Southern Oregon on Saturday.
So what does this mean? St. Norbert moves to the North. Thomas More moves to the South (see below). Widener moves to the East.
Here's our best guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 7. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today.
We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we did last year -- after their top seed.
Teams in bold have clinched playoff spots. We are projecting some automatic bid winners and not others, depending on how it would affect seedings.
The Springfield Bracket
1. Springfield (A)
2. Brockport State (B)
3. Union (B)
4. Rowan (A)
5. Widener (A)
6. Wesley (B)
7. Salve Regina/Bridgewater State (A)
The East is losing speed fast. Buffalo State dropped out of our projection
after losing to Ithaca last week and was replaced by Pacific Lutheran.
As much as the Hobart fans think of their chances, I doubt they think
they merit a slot over the defending champs. However, Union has a tough
game Saturday against Springfield (that's part of the reason their strength
of schedule is .538 and Hobart's is .415) and if they lose, they might
lose that spot to Hobart, which beat them 13-12 early in the year. Widener
(Chester, Pa.) and Wesley (Dover, Del.) both come into this bracket for
now to bring it to seven teams.
The Hardin-Simmons
Bracket
1. Hardin-Simmons (A)
2. Washington & Jefferson (B)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Trinity (A)
5. Thomas More (B)
6. ODAC champ (A)
7. Bridgewater (C)
Someone here has to fly, so why not Thomas More, who shifts to the South
bracket after the shuffle eastward. It actually almost makes more sense
to move an Ohio team to the East bracket, rather than Widener, but the
Ohio teams on that side of the state are too high in the bracket to move.
The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Millikin (A)
4. St. Norbert (A)
5. Hope (B)
6. HCAC champion (A)
7. Aurora (A)
We currently list Ohio Northern fifth among Pool C teams. If Bridgewater
loses at Catholic on Saturday, and Illinois Wesleyan loses to Millikin,
that would put ONU in good position. But the committee might be leery
of that six-point win against Capital (3-6) last week. St. Norbert does
well, coming into this bracket where we currently project them a four
seed! That's because the North is very easy to break between top and bottom
teams. St. Norbert (9-0 regional record) would be the last of the four
unbeatens and ahead of Hope (6-0 regional) and two-plus-loss Defiance/Bluffton/Hanover
and Aurora.
Where's Chicago? A miscalculation in Hope's regional record launched them into the poll, knocking out the Maroons, No. 8 in Pool B.
The Central/Wartburg
Bracket
1. Central (A)
2. Bethel (A)
3. UW-Stout (A)
4. Linfield (B)
5. Pacific Lutheran (B)
6. St. John's (C)
7. Wartburg (C)
We added PLU, as mentioned above. St. John's and Wartburg made an interesting
toss-up at the bottom of the bracket, and we have St. John's an edge based
on such intangibles as last year's playoff performance and non-conference
wins.
What's important to understand is 1) this doesn't take the Nov. 11 games into account and 2) one never knows what the committee will actually do.
We'll do this again after all the Nov. 11 games are done. These are just our opinions, take them as such.