We're just hoping to get all 28

The networks correctly projected all but one of the state-by-state results last week too. Oh well.

So we aim high, hoping we understand the system and crunch the numbers well enough to get all 28. We'll find out what the committee thinks at 2 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Pool C
Illinois Wesleyan did what most of us didn't think possible -- they beat Millikin and did not get the automatic bid. IWU, Millikin and Wheaton finished in a three-way tie for first in the CCIW, with Millikin getting the automatic bid based on greatest point differential in games against the other tied teams. Guess that offense comes in handy.

So Illinois Wesleyan is one of seven teams that finished 9-1 in automatic bid conferences. They have by far the best strength of schedule among these contenders. They are 2-0 against teams already in the playoffs.

We believe Illinois Wesleyan is a lock.

Western Connecticut State and Ripon each also finished 9-1. They are the only teams with a strength of schedule below .500 (and we calculate strength of schedule against Division III opponents, not counting the game each team plays against them, so as not to pollute the results).

We believe Western Connecticut State and Ripon are out.

This leaves us with four teams for two slots. St. John's, Wartburg, Mary Hardin-Baylor and Bridgewater all have strength of schedule marks ranging from .500 to .519. Not a big spread. Not enough here to sufficiently eliminate or elevate anyone.

Maybe the selection criteria will help us here:

2. Selection Criteria
A. The football committee will select teams based on conference results and competition within an institution's respective evaluation region. The committee will review all the following primary criteria (in priority order):
(1) Winning percentage, head-to-head results, results against common opponents;
(2) Strength of schedule, as demonstrated by regional opponents' winning percentage (a calculation utilizing both opponents' records and opponents' opponents' records); and
(3) Results against teams already in the tournament.
Note: The committee will review all three criteria in the order listed above. A team may have an excellent winning percentage, but the strength of schedule and results against teams already in the tournament must also be examined.
B. If an analysis of the primary criteria does not result in a decision by the committee, the remainder of an institution's schedule (e.g., NAIA, Divisions [sic] I and II opponents, and out-of-region play) will be evaluated.

Part 1: Three of these teams have a 9-1 regional record. Mary Hardin-Baylor is 8-1 in region. None have played head-to-head. None have played a common opponent.

Part 2: Mary Hardin-Baylor's SOS is .519, Bridgewater .517, St. John's .500, Wartburg .500 (we do not calculate opponents' opponents' records -- our database is just not as good as the NCAA's).

Part 3: Only Bridgewater has a win against someone in the tournament (Western Maryland). So they are 1-1 against the tournament field. The other three teams are 0-1.

I believe the SOS differences here to be negligible. The difference between Bridgewater and St. John's/Wartburg is the difference of just a game and a half over a 90-game season. 

Bridgewater stands out as the only team remaining with a win against a tournament team.

So we'll put Bridgewater in.

We've got one spot left for Mary Hardin-Baylor, St. John's and Wartburg. On the surface, St. John's and Wartburg seem identical. Going into the week, the West regional committee had Wartburg ahead of St. John's.

Based on those slimmest of hearsay criteria, we'll put Wartburg in.

Tough choice, to be sure. St. John's has a better track record in the playoffs (Wartburg has only won one game in four trips). Wartburg lost to a better team (Central, as opposed to Bethel beating St. John's).

Pool B
With so many slots available and some key results on Saturday, the Pool B decision was actually much easier. Chicago was on the bubble and lost. Union was on the bubble and won (big, on the road, against a playoff team). Hope beat Albion to knock them off the bubble. Washington & Jefferson won, to wrap up their slot and stick a fork in Buffalo State.

The tough decision came down to the last spot. We have battled back and forth between Hobart and Thomas More the last couple weeks. This week we select Hobart.

The two squads are very similar. 

Both are 8-1 against Division III opponents: Hobart plays only nine games, while Thomas More has a win against NAIA Urbana (don't be impressed, Urbana's site hasn't been updated in two weeks, but they were 1-7 as of Oct. 28).

Ugly strength of schedule on both sides: .438 for Hobart, .444 for Thomas More. A half-game difference. And thrown in Urbana for Thomas More and they'd drop to .420.

Each is 1-0 against playoff teams: Hobart beat Union, Thomas More beat Hanover.

Ahh, but their loss! Hobart lost to 6-4 Rochester. Thomas More lost to 2-8 Thiel. Now, we know Thiel has had its ups and downs this year, but even if they were healthy and avoided a staph infection that knocked out a good number of players, they still would not have been 6-4.

I hate to say it to Thomas More, after they feel they got the shaft in 1995, but you're our 29th team. Hobart gets that last spot.

That's our analysis for this evening. Now, on with the picks.

Here's our best and final guess at the Field of 28, updated Nov. 7. This is just a guess. This is how we feel the committee would choose and pair the teams if they made their decision today. 

We could certainly name these brackets North, South, East and West, but since teams can move into a bracket that is not part of their region, it's better to just name the brackets as we did last year -- after their top seed.

Teams in bold have clinched automatic bids.

The Brockport Bracket
1. Brockport State (B)
2. Union (B)
3. Springfield (A)
4. Montclair State (A)
5. Hobart (B)
6. Wesley (B)
7. Bridgewater State (A)
The travel in this bracket was made easier by the loss of Springfield. Now they can host Bridgewater State, Wesley goes to Union and Hobart goes to Montclair State. All of these trips are under 400 miles and kosher for NCAA first-round travel.

The Hardin-Simmons Bracket
1. Hardin-Simmons (A)
2. Washington & Jefferson (B)
3. Western Maryland (A)
4. Widener (A)
5. Trinity (A)
6. Emory & Henry (A) 
7. Bridgewater (C)
Widener comes back home to the South bracket, as they are seeded higher than Wesley. Good airport for Trinity to fly into in Philadelphia. Travel is good all around here. I like this bracket. 

The Mount Union Bracket
1. Mount Union (A)
2. Wittenberg (A)
3. Millikin (A)
4. Illinois Wesleyan (C)
5. Hope (B)
6. Hanover (A)
7. Aurora (A)
Tempting to put IWU above Millikin here, but I think the committee will leave the conference champ ahead of the runner-up even in this unusual circumstance.

The Stout Bracket
1. UW-Stout (A)
2. Central (A)
3. Bethel (A)
4. Linfield (B)
5. Pacific Lutheran (B)
6. St. Norbert (A)
7. Wartburg (C)
Toughest bracket of all to decide on, thanks to Illinois Wesleyan likely taking St. John's Pool C bid. The committee would avoid putting Wartburg against Central again so soon, but my unofficial mileage charts say St. Norbert is 400.5 miles away from Central! So, better hope the NCAA charts are different, because otherwise either Central must play Wartburg again, or we'll have a 6-7 and a 2-3 matchup in this bracket. Linfield and PLU are playing each other no matter what they actually get seeded, since Linfield is not going to get a first-round bye. NWC fans, the only solution to this is to get some of those D-IIs and NAIA schools up in the Northwest to turn over to D-III so someone else is in driving distance!

The committee will announce its selections on Sunday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern. This is a streaming audio cast, which might be too much for some computers and modems to handle. As always, we will mirror the selections in a nice, simple format, here.