D3football Daily Dose

Predicting the Stagg Bowl has now reached double digits.

Dating to 1999, this marks the 10th consecutive time that we have made predictions for the championship game, though it hasn’t always been with this broad of a forecasting base. To cap the season, we have several voices leading off the discussion about Saturday’s game.

Last year, Tom Pattison of Warhawkfootball.com and Matt Barnhart of Bridgewaterfootball.com were our “champion” pickers, each foreshadowing a 27-24 Whitewater victory. The actual final score was 31-21.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007

This year is unique in several ways, and with that comes unique ways of looking at
the matchup. The takes:

Pat Coleman, D3football.com
I haven’t had a great postseason of picks after a good early start, and often it seems to be from picking UW-Whitewater wrong. Last year we saw the key to beating Mount Union, and part of it is containing Nate Kmic. One thing I’ve seen from the Warhawks this year is the ability to limit, if not eliminate, yards after contact. And that’s despite starting two new linebackers. If the game becomes a battle of the secondaries, I like Whitewater’s chances. If it’s a battle of the kicking game, then I like Whitewater even more. But I worry about the quarterback play when I make this prediction. Mount Union clearly has a decided edge in Greg Micheli, with both his arm and his legs. I’m not big into cliches about wanting it more, or stuff like that. I just can foresee UW-Whitewater doing enough things right to win this game.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 20

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
I’d like to call this one a toss-up, but I’m not sure it is one. Unless Anthony White and the UW-Whitewater defensive line can cause some disruption among Luke Summers and the Mount Union offensive line (yeah, I just name-dropped linemen), it seems like the Mount Union offense will hum as usual. It will be physical, and the Warhawks will get their licks in, but if they defend their title, it would be a mild surprise to me. If all else is equal, the combination of the most efficient passer in college football history and the leading rusher in NCAA history should put Mount Union over the top.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
So here we go again. Whitewater vs. Mount Union IV. From a Whitewater perspective, looking at the statistics of Nate Kmic, Greg Micheli and Cecil Shorts, you wonder if the Warhawks belong on the same field. Had the same feeling in ‘07. A reporter from the Roanoke area repeatedly tried to get MUC head coach Larry Kehres this week to say that the Purple Raiders were out for revenge following UWW’s 31-21 win in last year’s Stagg Bowl. No dice! Kehres isn’t looking for revenge, he is looking for
his team to play error-free football, something it did not do in last year’s game. The farther you go in the playoffs, the more magnified are turnovers and missed scoring opportunities in the Red Zone. Whitewater getting back to the Stagg Bowl after losing 24 seniors and 17 starters from last year’s National Championship team is simply amazing. The team jelled early in the season and rode its defense to a share of the WIAC title. As a fifth seed, UWW needed to travel to Salem, Ore., to slow down the high octane offense of Willamette. Last week, the Hawks dominated a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that most predicted would beat Whitewater and advance to the Stagg Bowl. The Hawks possess a strong, physical, fast defense. The offense features two 1000-yard rushers for the first time in school history. They are not Justin Beaver, but they are pretty darn good! I also think Whitewater’s special teams have an advantage over MUC, lead by Jeff Schebler, NCAA Division III’s all-time leading field goal kicker. Hawks win the special teams play and force four MUC turnovers.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 21

Bret Page, former Mary Hardin-Baylor linebacker
I believe that both teams will try to set the tempo early by trying to set up and establish the run game. UWW will have a slight advantage at being more balanced and mixing in the pass. Mount Union will have to play well on defense as they seem a little small, and I think Whitewater will make them pay for that as they have proven to be very big and physical in their impressive win over UMHB this year. I think it will be a clean game as both teams are disciplined, so which ever team is able to capitalize on errors such as penalties and turnovers will have the upper hand. I think neither team will be able to count on one player to carry them through, but it will be a total team effort for both sides as they will have to mix it up to try to pull out the win. Whitewater in a close one …
UW-Whitewater 31, Mount Union 28

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
Regardless of how the Stagg Bowl turns out, Coach Lance Liepold has my vote for the D3football.com Coach of the Year. Both Mount Union and UW-Whitewater had to replace a significant portion of their starting lineups this year, but the Warhawks lost the offensive player of the year and their starting quarterback. They’ve battled through injuries, playoff road games and the toughest conference in Division III. The magnitude of that accomplishment underlines potential weaknesses going into Saturday. Last year the Warhawks had an intangible edge in that Justin Beaver was playing the last game in a spectacular college career. This year that edge slides over to Mount Union because of Nate Kmic and Greg Micheli. The situations aren’t the same but watching Mount Union stifle Wheaton when its top running back was hurt makes me wonder how effective the UW-Whitewater’s ground game will be if Levell Coppage isn’t at full strength. And while UW-Whitewater has impressive wins, they haven’t looked invincible. Remember they lost to two-loss UW-Stevens Point and had close games with Willamette and Wartburg (20-17 in fourth quarter). On the bright side for UWW, I was wrong on two of three previous matchups.
Mount Union 28, UW-Whitewater 24

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater is proof that the whole is greater than the parts. The skill players aren’t household names like Mount Union’s Micheli or Kmic, but as a unit, the Warhawks have overcome tests of injury, travel and inexperience, to name a few. They emerged from the toughest branch of the “West” bracket, have been forcing turnovers (+13 on the season) and can put pressure on a quarterback. The biggest offensive weapon for UW-W could be dual rushers that have the potential to sustain a drive and wear down Mount’s defense. But for every score Whitewater can put up, Mount should be able to match. UW-W has proven throughout the postseason that it can stop the run, but facing a passing game as sophisticated and crisp as MUC’s may become the Achilles’ heel for the defending national champions.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mount Union 31

Frank Rossi, D3football.com
It’s a tough choice, now that the Warhawks have broken the ice with a win last year. There are some things that are consistent every year with these teams: 1) Mount Union’s offense is in tip-top shape; 2) Mount Union’s defense has proven sturdy all season; and 3) UW-Whitewater’s defense has improved all year. That leaves one question for me — but the Warhawks’ offense is not as strong as it was last year with Justin Beaver. Because of this, Mount Union unseats the defending
champions, pulling away at the end.
Mount Union 42, UW-Whitewater 24

Look,
There isn’t a whole lot of intro needed here. We have four phenomenal teams left from a crop of 239. Two will punch tickets to Salem on Saturday, one in sunny Belton, Texas, the other in chilly Alliance, Ohio. And believe it or not, we have unanimity among the trio who’s been forecasting each playoff weekend for you: columnist Ryan Tipps, columnist/managing editor Keith McMillan and publisher Pat Coleman.

After the guys have at it, feel free to add your own picks below. Those brave enough win the opportunity to gloat later.

Wisconsin-Whitewater (12-1) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (12-1)
Ryan’s take: The phrase “bruised and battered” means something different to Mary Hardin-Baylor than it does to other teams. Several times this year, it has seemed the Crusaders were poised to stumble under excessive injuries. Yet instead of tip-toeing through the troubles, they ran past them at full speed, helped by the half-dozen guys who have been able to pick up an average of 5 yards or more per carry. Then again, UW-Whitewater, no slouches on offense, will also likely be the stingiest defense UMHB has lined up against this year. A difference of only 10 yards per game, statistically, separates these two offenses. Both teams have been here before – in terms of time, place and stakes. What could hinder Whitewater is an inability to stay at full throttle for the full 60 minutes, allowing UMHB to pull away after the break.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 38, UW-Whitewater 24

Keith’s take: Usually I’m the long-winded, overly analytical one, but I’ll keep my reasoning simple in this toss-up. I’m making the stretch from picking UMHB to be upset in the first round to picking them to get to Salem, basically based on how they’ve played the past two weeks against Wesley and W&J. They’ve been able to mix the pass in with the always-potent running game, and generate problems on defense. They demolished the Presidents, 63-7, and should be as confident as they have been all season; UW-Whitewater had to battle to get past Wartburg. Playing well, playing at home and playing to keep dreams of the school’s first championship alive, I go:
Mary Hardin-Baylor 28, UW-Whitewater 21

Pat’s take: My concern is that another potent running offense will cause the Warhawks to break rather than just bend. If UMHB is in field goal range it won’t hesitate to take the points, which may have been Willamette’s downfall two weeks ago. The Crusader defense will do a better job early in the game than Willamette did against UWW, plus, I’m still worried about quarterback Jeff Donovan, who is 12-for-29 passing since getting injured at halftime of the second-round game.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 31, UW-Whitewater 20

Wheaton (11-2) at Mount Union (13-0)
Ryan’s take: The Thunder struck hard against the trio of Indiana playoff teams, but Ohio will undoubtedly be a different beast for them. Wheaton is best through the middle of a game: The second and third quarters are their prime times for putting up points and keeping pressure on teams, both of which are critical if the men want any chance of beating the Mount Union machine. For the Thunder, slowing Nate Kmic and getting pressure on Greg Micheli are possible. But is shutting down the receiving corps? That will be the biggest key to Wheaton’s chances in Alliance, and I’m not entirely convinced the team will deliver. Wheaton gives up, on average, 228 yards per game against the pass, but to its credit the team has held its previous two (pass-heavy) playoff opponents to fewer than their averages. At this point in the season, Wheaton is accelerating down the stretch toward perfection – and perfection is exactly what will be needed from them Saturday.
Mount Union 41, Wheaton 17

Keith’s take: I love the run Wheaton is on, I love that they’ve been able to play great defense when needed and outscore teams when that’s been the recipe. Pete Ittersagen is a defensive stud, the offense is mixing the run and the pass well, and the Thunder is playing inspired. That said, we’ve seen hardly the chink in the armor necessary for me to believe Mount Union is going down on Saturday. There are flaws, but they remain few, and I don’t see the Purple Raiders playing a sloppy, turnover-plagued game with Greg Micheli at the controls. It might get dicey at times, it might not be easy, but it will lead to another Purple Saturday in Salem.
Mount Union 35, Wheaton 17

Pat’s take: I just don’t see Wheaton having the firepower to stay with Mount Union, not if Rocky Gingg can’t go at running back. Even if Pete Ittersagen keeps Cecil Shorts in check, it’s a tough task for Wheaton to keep the Purple Raiders’ other offensive pieces contained if the offense doesn’t help by keeping them off the field. In the end, this game looks a lot like last week’s Mount Union game, close for a while with the Purple Raiders pulling away. And I think Nate Kmic gets the all-time NCAA rushing record in the process.
Mount Union 45, Wheaton 14

Welcome to the Round of Eight. The initial 32-team field has been quartered, and it’s Friday — tomorrow we watch as it’s cut in half again.

Reading some of the comments recently, I almost thought ‘why bother with a fancy intro this week?’ But the discerning among you read closely, and that we appreciate, as well as your feedback. So let me jog your minds before we get to the actual picks.

I might not be able to keep pace with Ryan Tipps, but here’s one prediction I’ll nail this week: The three of us (and remember, we take a stab at scores without talking to each other) will be unanimous on three games, and split on one.

There’s no reason to take offense. Three of the dominant programs of the last half-decade are at home tomorrow. Mount Union, UW-Whitewater and Mary Hardin-Baylor have accounted for seven of the past eight Stagg Bowl appearances. And although the Cru, whose 2007 group was one of the best non-Stagg teams of the automatic bid era, lacks the jewelry the other two can show off, they have something no one I can think of does: A winning record (1-0) in Alliance.

So fans of Cortland State, Wartburg and Washington & Jefferson, don’t take it as a sign of disrespect. It’s more like a sign that respect is earned, not given. For certain, this is 2008 were talking about, and history doesn’t strap up on Saturday. All eight teams still standing have earned respect, and they honestly all have a chance to win.

What W&J did defensively and in the running game against Millsaps was tremendous, proving the team was more than just The Bobby Swallow Show. Wheaton and Wartburg, both with two losses, have been playing with their backs against the wall for weeks, and responding again and again. Cortland State and Wheaton played two of the more grueling schedules you’ll find, and Franklin … when that offense gets humming, it’s some see-it-to-believe-it type stuff.

Step back a second and remember that there are 231 Division III football programs who could not be with us this wekend, and the vast majority of them would love to have one more Saturday of football. Enjoy it. Represent college football in its purest form by playing and rooting hard, but being good to each other as well.

What’s been accomplished so far by these elite eight is really special. Four of these teams will end their seasons with a loss Saturday. It’s our job to set the expectation on which ones it will be, but even an “expert” isn’t always 100% sure. There’s reason to believe in every team left.

As always, feel free to tally the composite prediction. And please share your picks below.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET FINAL
No. 3 seed Cortland State at No. 1 Mount Union
Ryan: Mount Union, 45-20
Keith: Mount Union, 38-21
Pat: Mount Union, 52-17

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET FINAL
No. 5 Washington & Jefferson at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Ryan: UMHB, 38-28
Keith: UMHB, 35-28
Pat: UMHB, 34-24

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wheaton at No. 5 Franklin
Ryan: Franklin, 42-34
Keith: Franklin, 37-31
Pat: Wheaton, 45-42

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET FINAL
No. 7 Wartburg at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 31-21
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 24-7
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 34-13

In Week 13, the round of 16 is often where we separate the proverbial men from the boys; where we find out who’s OK with taking one playoff win back to campus and who has a real shot at getting to Salem.

Of course, these are not exactly dog matchups with obvious favorites and likely losers. Some powerful teams very capable of advancing are going to bow out on Saturday because they’re matched up against similarly powerful teams. Makes the job of predicting final scores pretty difficult.

But then again, even “experts” don’t expect to call every game correctly, and what fun would the playoffs be if we could? The surprises are as interesting to us as they are to you, and the ones we can’t call (but try to anyway) are what makes us appreciate the sort-it-out-on-the-field system we have.

Though it isn’t hard to keep track, as Ryan Tipps went 12-4 last week with correct picks on three of the four No. 7 seeds that advanced, while Pat Coleman went 11-5 and Keith McMillan 10-6, these picks are really for your gratification, not ours. We’re setting the expectation, but teams do the unexpected every week, and frankly, we expect that too.

If you want to taunt us next week for a score we fail to accurately predict, knock yourself out. Hindsight, of course, is 20-20. If you really want to impress, use the comments section below to guess the scores of this week’s games yourselves.

Our expectations, compiled without consulting each other, from the westernmost bracket east:

No. 5 UW-WHITEWATER at No. 1 WILLAMETTE
Keith: Whitewater, 28-21
Ryan: Whitewater, 27-24
Pat: Willamette, 38-34

No. 7 WARTBURG at No. 3 MONMOUTH
Keith: Wartburg, 23-21
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: Wartburg, 28-25

No. 5 WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON at No. 1 MILLSAPS
Keith: Millsaps, 41-31
Ryan: Millsaps, 38-21
Pat: Millsaps, 45-24

No. 7 WESLEY at No. 2 MARY HARDIN-BAYLOR
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 34-24
Pat: UMHB, 35-31

No. 5 FRANKLIN at No. 1 NORTH CENTRAL
Keith: North Central, 35-34
Ryan: North Central, 45-38
Pat: North Central, 51-45

No. 7 WHEATON at No. 6 WABASH
Keith: Wheaton, 17-13
Ryan: Wheaton, 31-27
Pat: Wheaton, 28-24

No. 4 HOBART at No. 1 MOUNT UNION
Keith: Mount Union, 54-23
Ryan: Mount Union, 52-10
Pat: Mount Union, 42-10

No. 7 CURRY at No. 3 CORTLAND STATE
Keith: Cortland State, 24-14
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Curry, 31-27

As with last week, if anyone wants to put together a composite expectation or chart the unanimous vs. split picks, feel free.

Week 12 is here, and if you’re anything like me, the annual let’s-all-start-at-noon 16-game smackdown is your favorite Saturday of the season. There are ECAC bowls and makeup games too, but in all honesty, the Walnut and Bronze is what we play (or watch) for, and one of the 32 teams in the field will be in Salem on Dec. 20 hoisting it.

You might not need an expert to tell you that the No. 1 team in the D3football.com Top 25 is expected to win it all. But expected outcomes in the first-round matchups are less certain, especially if your vision is clouded by the love of a particular team or the lack of knowledge of much outside your home conference.

It is with that in mind that Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps and I give you our playoff score predictions. These are not “lines,” and this is not a contest between the three of us. It’s an experiment in expectation vs. outcome.

Simply put, the three of us separately guesstimate what Saturday’s 16 final scores will be. In some cases, our expectations will be remarkably similar. In others, they’ll differ. Everything the three of us think will happen won’t, but at least you’ll know a stunning result when you see it.

MOUNT UNION (East) BRACKET
No. 8 Randolph-Macon at No. 1 Mount Union
Keith: Mount Union, 44-7
Ryan: Mount Union, 63-7
Pat: Mount Union, 63-6

No. 5 Lycoming at No. 4 Hobart
Keith: Lycoming, 13-12
Ryan: Lycoming, 24-14
Pat: Hobart, 14-10

No. 6 Plymouth State at No. 3 Cortland State
Keith: Cortland State, 24-13
Ryan: Cortland State, 31-17
Pat: Cortland State, 32-14

No. 7 Curry at No. 2 Ithaca
Keith: Ithaca, 42-21
Ryan: Ithaca, 42-13
Pat: Ithaca, 48-7

NORTH CENTRAL (North) BRACKET
No. 8 Thomas More at No. 1 North Central
Keith: North Central, 33-10
Ryan: North Central, 31-21
Pat: North Central, 45-14

No. 5 Franklin at No. 4 Otterbein
Keith: Otterbein, 30-27
Ryan: Otterbein, 37-14
Pat: Otterbein, 35-20

No. 6 Wabash at No. 3 Case Western Reserve
Keith: Case Western Reserve, 15-12
Ryan: Wabash, 34-28
Pat: Wabash, 35-28

No. 7 Wheaton at No. 2 Trine
Keith:Wheaton, 27-24
Ryan: Wheaton, 24-23
Pat: Wheaton, 38-21

WILLAMETTE (West) BRACKET
No. 2 Occidental at No. 1 Willamette
Keith: Willamette, 34-23
Ryan: Willamette, 31-17
Pat: Willamette, 41-27

No. 6 St. John’s at No. 5 UW-Whitewater
Keith: UW-Whitewater, 28-14
Ryan: UW-Whitewater, 17-13
Pat: UW-Whitewater, 24-14

No. 7 Wartburg at No. 4 UW-Stevens Point
Keith: UW-Stevens Point, 14-13
Ryan: Wartburg, 21-14
Pat: UW-Stevens Point, 17-3

No. 8 Aurora at No. 3 Monmouth
Keith: Monmouth, 38-20
Ryan: Monmouth, 42-31
Pat: Monmouth, 30-13

MILLSAPS (South) BRACKET
No. 8 LaGrange at No. 1 Millsaps
Keith: Millsaps, 49-17
Ryan: Millsaps, 45-10
Pat: Millsaps, 63-3

No. 6 Christopher Newport at No. 5 Washington & Jefferson
Keith: W&J, 28-21
Ryan: W&J, 34-31
Pat: W&J, 24-21

No. 7 Wesley at No. 4 Muhlenberg
Keith: Wesley, 21-20
Ryan: Wesley, 31-20
Pat: Wesley, 31-23

No. 3 Hardin-Simmons at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor
Keith: Hardin-Simmons, 20-18
Ryan: Hardin-Simmons, 27-24
Pat: Hardin-Simmons, 38-35

Anyone who wants to average the scores to come up with a composite “expectation,” go right ahead.

Pride is on the line in some of the division’s best rivalries, and 18 of the 32 playoff bids need to be sorted out and earned. What do we really need to say to get you hyped up for Week 11?

We brought in a former Thomas More quarterback, Kevin Niehus, to take snaps along with Triple Take regulars Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan. Here’s what the trio thought you’d be wise to look forward to on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Kevin’s take: 50th Annual Cortaca Jug Game, Ithaca at Cortland State. Barring an upset of St. John Fisher, Ithaca needs this win to stay in the conversation for a playoff bid. Standing in their way is a SUNY-Cortland team looking to cap off an undefeated regular season at home, and put itself in position for a regional top seed. Incredibly, nine of the past 11 games have come down to the final two minutes of the game and this year’s version should be more of the same.
Pat’s take: St. John’s at Carleton. The former quarterback against his former coach. A team whose strength is throwing the ball, against a team whose strength is defending the pass. The Johnnies just faced a team with a lot of offensive weapons and handled them well, defeating Augsburg 28-21. Except Carleton won’t completely abandon the rush. The all-time series is unanimous in St. John’s favor, a perfect 25-0, with scores of 56-14, 55-7, 64-7 and 70-7. This will not be like those games. Carleton is certainly in uncharted territory, however, with its destiny in its own hands in Week 11.
Keith’s take: No. 17 Ithaca at No. 7 Cortland State. Pandemonium describes Cortaca Jug even in an off year. This is anything but. The 8-1 Bombers are playing for their playoff lives. The 9-0 Red Dragons are already in the 32-team field, but can keep their rivals out and cap an undefeated regular season at the same time. It doesn’t get much better than this.

Which rivalry game will be the most exciting?
Kevin’s take: Bridge Bowl — Mount St. Joseph at Thomas More. It’s hard to pick against a game that is expected to draw 12,000 people (Monon Bell), but these are two schools are bitter, close rivals — separated by 11 miles and the Ohio River. If you live, have lived or spent time in Cincinnati, you know there’s a natural rivalry between residents of Ohio and Kentucky. Heck, they put the Greater Cincinnati Airport (CVG as Pat knows it) in Northern Kentucky! Both teams are coming off surprising losses last week, and with the Lions missing the playoffs for the first time since 2003, this is the postseason for MSJ. Thomas More Head Coach Jim Hilvert helped lead Mount St. Joseph to the top of the Heartland Conference as defensive coordinator and his team won the PAC in this, his second year.
Pat’s take: The Monon Bell game, DePauw at Wabash. I’ve been lucky to be at a lot of games with big crowds this year, but I expect this one to take the cake. This might be my only chance to see this game because I usually have to stay close to home in Week 11, so it better be a good one. But even if it isn’t a great game on the field, it’s better than watching it in a sports bar in Alexandria, Va., like the last time I saw it live. It’s the 115th meeting, and Wabash leads 53-52 with nine ties. DePauw has the Bell after upsetting Wabash 24-21 last season. Looking forward to it.
Keith’s take: The Game. Cortaca Jug, Muhlenberg-Moravian and Monon Bell should all be right up there. But the idea of Randolph-Macon spoiling Hampden-Sydney’s Pool C hopes and backing into the playoffs (with a Catholic loss to Bridgewater as well) is sure to have the classy-but-crazy crowd at H-SC in a frenzy. Conversely, the Tigers, often jobbed out of Pool C spots either because of weak schedules or the misfortune of being a shallow team in a deep pool, finally earning an at-large bid would be nice to see. Begrudgingly, of course. (Who am I, and what have I done with that R-MC graduate, you ask?)

Surprisingly close game
Kevin’s take: Washington & Jefferson at Waynesburg. Waynesburg has not played up to expectations in 2008, for many reasons. A win against W&J would move much of the disappointment to the background. There has been some talk among fans of W&J about the Presidents not playing well in pressure situations. They have the loss to North Carolina Wesleyan in Round 1 last year and Thomas More this year to point to. The Presidents must win and then hope for some help to even get in on the discussion of the playoff committee. No doubt, this is another pressure game.
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central at Elmhurst. I say this because Elmhurst has had a pretty good season and with former North Central coordinator Tim Lester at the helm, the Bluejays have a shot to at least get into the playoff conversation on Saturday night. At the beginning of the season, with a late coaching change, who’d have thought that Elmhurst would be gunning for an 8-2 record?
Keith’s take: Austin at Trinity (Texas). As we saw last week’s it’s not easy to keep the intensity up after your conference title hopes are dashed. I don’t think the Kangaroos are going to win, but Trinity could have a little trouble getting ramped up.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Kevin’s take: No. 13 UW-Stevens Point. The last three games for the Pointers have been decided by a total of three points, including a 34-33 OT win at home against UW-Oshkosh, who’s 1-5 in the WIAC entering the final weekend. The run has to come up “snake eyes” at some point, doesn’t it?
Keith’s take: No. 14 Otterbein. There are quite a few dangerous games for ranked teams this week, from No. 2 North Central at Elmhurst to No. 25 Redlands hosting Cal Lutheran. Forced to choose, the possibility of the Cardinals pulling a Wheaton/Trinity and going from unbeaten playoff lock to out of the field with consecutive losses is real. John Carroll beat Thomas More and Capital during a 5-1 start, and is now trying to salvage a season barreling toward .500. These teams played a triple-overtime thriller last season, but a better reason to pick the Blue Streaks? In Kickoff ’08, yours truly pegged Otterbein as the most unlikely playoff teams. So yeah, sorry about the jinx guys.
Pat’s take: No. 7 Cortland State. Ithaca just has too much to play for, and although the Bombers’ health is in question, motivation will not be. Not with the playoffs on the line. Not with the Cortaca Jug at stake. Not with a chance to make the bracketologists’ night hellish.

They’ll be on your radar
Kevin’s take: Ohio Northern (for next season). The Polar Bears’ first three opponents have a combined record of 26-1 going into week 11. Not only did they lose these three games, but they also had to deal with some key injuries. After starting out 0-4, the players have responded to Dean Paul’s staff and if they beat a Wilmington team that lately has been playing pretty good football of their own, Ohio Northern will finish third in the OAC. The players coming back from injury will help create some depth, a very important part of a good OAC team and the team could build on a very positive ending to 2008.
Pat’s take: Washington U. The Bears tried to get on the radar earlier in the season with a win at Wittenberg, but threw it away with three consecutive losses. Now at 5-4, the Bears haven’t had a non-winning season this decade, and Wash. U. can also clinch a share of the UAA title with a win and spoil any shot Case has of a home game in the playoffs.
Keith’s take: UW-La Crosse. You thought the 3-6 Eagles ceased to be relevant after their dreadful 0-5 start? Joke’s on you, Jack. Against No. 13 UW-Stevens Point, a team that’s won three consecutive games by a point and six by three or fewer, La Crosse carries with it the hopes of playoff teams from coast to coast. Redlands, RPI, Washington & Jefferson and Hampden-Sydney will all be big fans on Saturday. An Eagles defeat of the Pointers could give UW-Whitewater the WIAC title, which would open up an extra spot in Pool C. Also, I’ll be watching Whittier to see if it can duplicate the 67-61 Week 11, last-game-of-the-regular season-literally.

Who will have the least momentum entering the playoffs?
Kevin’s take: I hate to say it and I’m probably going to take some flak for this, but.. Potentially, it could be Thomas More. They lost on the road to an average Geneva last weekend, after clinching the PAC title the Saturday before. This week will tell us quite a bit about the Saints. Thomas More beat an undefeated MSJ team in 2006’s regular season finale — so it’s happened before during this series. Rod Huber’s Lions would love to return the favor on Saturday. If the Saints don’t beat Mount St. Joe, Coach Hilvert and his staff will have their hands full trying to build this team back up in time for a road playoff game.
Pat’s take: No. 9 Wesley. Coming off back-to-back games against first-year program Lake Erie and No. 232 Gallaudet, it’s tough to be prepared for a playoff game.
Keith’s take: Cortland State. Least momentum? Whichever team loses on Saturday? Barring that, whichever one has the majority of players who helped earn a bid healthy. Forced to choose, and with the obvious options either locked in via Pool A or a possibility not to make it in Pool C, Cortland is all that’s left. There aren’t too many teams who can lose this weekend and go into the postseason cold.

Which conference frontrunner is most likely to play itself out of the postseason?
Kevin’s take: Ferrum. Despite Christopher Newport’s lack of a passing game (they average 107 yards through the air/per game), Ferrum will have their hands full in Newport News. Fixing the Panthers’ defense a week after giving up 600 total yards and 41 points on Senior Day and having to face Christopher Newport in a playoff atmosphere at POMOCO Stadium is too much to expect Ferrum to overcome.
Pat’s take: St. John Fisher. Barring a massive retooling over the bye week, St. John Fisher has a lot of question marks. How did they give up 35 at home to Springfield? How did they only score 17 on Utica? Why am I asking you all these questions?
Keith’s take: Albright. It’s tough to pick against frontrunners; that’s why they’re frontrunners. And a team that is not yet in can’t really play itself out; but I get the point. No one leading their conference has a tougher assignment than winning at Delaware Valley, bottom line.

Rivalries. Rankings. Conference titles. Playoff berths. At this point in the season, in Week 10 of 11 in the regular season, so much is on the line that very little needs to be said about what kind of week it is. So without further ado, Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan peer into their clouded crystal balls to give you an idea what might happen on Saturday:

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: Rowan vs. No. 21 Montclair State. This one has the feel of previous showdowns when the Profs and Red Hawks played for the NJAC title and an NCAA playoff time. Cortland State took the first prize off the table but the later is still up for grabs. With the long list of one-loss teams, neither can afford to pick up a second. Montclair has the top defense in the conference (13.1 points per game) and Rowan the second (18.2) so don’t expect a shootout.
Pat’s take: Hampden-Sydney at Huntingdon. Nearly an elimination game, this is a rematch of a contest that was a seven-point game for most of the second half in Virginia last year. HSC is not in a great position to get an at-large bid at the moment and needs to beat regionally ranked Huntingdon to get into the South Region rankings itself.
Keith’s take: No. 25 Trine at Adrian. Between the rivalries and clashes of top 25 teams I highlighted in Around the Nation, there are plenty to choose from. I took the Thunder-Bulldogs because both No. 1 Mount Union and No. 12 Otterbein will have a path to the postseason no matter what happens Saturday. But of Trine and Adrian, one is head to the playoffs, forever to be remembered as the 2008 MIAA champs. The other’s fate is to close out a pretty good season in Week 11 and turn in the pads.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Hartwick at Springfield. The Hawks still are in the Empire 8 title hunt while this season has been a struggle for the 2-6 Pride. And Hartwick’s defense has enabled its potent offense to put weaker teams away by comfortable margins. But this is the home finale for Springfield, including three senior offensive linemen. Look for the Pride to show some, um, pride and keep this close.
Pat’s take: Ursinus at No. 6 Muhlenberg. I’m picturing the Ursinus team that went on the road and won at Alfred making another appearance. Since the Bears’ only other wins since then are against Juniata and McDaniel, a combined 3-14, it makes it a tough sell, though.
Keith’s take: Augustana at No. 2 North Central. I have a bad feeling about this one for North Central, and perhaps not for any logical reason. The 6-2 Vikings have been hot and the Cardinals have everything to lose. With a conference title, playoff spot and perhaps a No. 1 seed in North Central’s grasp, the pressure could become overwhelming, the play tight and the game way too close for comfort.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 14 UW-Stevens Point. Trine is my first pick but I’ll save them for later. UW-Stevens Point has certainly made things exciting for themselves and the conference. Back-to-back one-point wins keep the Pointers in control of their own playoff destiny, but how many times can they do it? And can they do it on the road against UW-Eau Claire?
Pat’s take: No. 2 North Central. I’m going about as far up the poll as one reasonably can here, yes. Augustana looks like it’s getting the hang of the offense, going 28-for-41 through the air in their past two games (not counting a 13-for-15 in the North Park game).
Keith’s take: No. 15 Occidental. If the Tigers lost 67-61 to a 4-5 Whittier team when the playoffs were in their grasp last season, perhaps a stumble against 2-5 Pomona-Pitzer isn’t far-fetched. Consistency is the name of the game, and Occidental, playing at home for the first time since Oct. 4, must demonstrate it.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Husson. With a win against Becker, the Eagles will finish the season 7-0 against Division III opponents and stand on the brink of making Wesley fans very unhappy. Case Western takes one of three Pool B bids by winning out. Huntingdon is already ahead of Wesley in the regional rankings and seems a safe bet to stay that way unless the Hawks lose. There have been stranger playoff picks than Husson – okay, picks that are just strange – so don’t count out Husson or idle Northwestern (Minn.) as the third team selected.
Pat’s take: Adrian. This is a matchup of two teams on a roll, and with Adrian hosting, with the conference title on the line, I’m going with the home team. The score comparisons are fairly even … if you throw out the Hope and Kalamazoo results.
Keith’s take: Trinity (Conn). A win against 1-6 rival Wesleyan and the Bantams finish their fourth undefeated season since 2003. We’ll never know how this dynasty compares to others in Division III, but they at least deserve a little attention for the feat if they in fact pull it off this weekend.

Who has the hardest road to clinching a share of a conference title: Ithaca against Alfred, North Central against Augustana, or Adrian against Trine?
Gordon’s take: Trine. The Thunder have played a lot of close games and face an opponent that has quietly rolled through MIAA play. As a point of comparison, Hope lost to Trine by 1 and Adrian by 36. Trine rushes for 194.5 yards per game on the ground and holds opponents to 53 rushing yards per game. That’s second in the conference – guess who’s first in both categories.
Pat’s take: Ithaca. It’s the first home game in 35 days for Alfred, in case the Saxons need extra incentive. The Saxons have been close to the playoffs in recent years and been left out, even, dare we say, snubbed, so they know that they need to win the conference title.
Keith’s take: North Central. As I said, Augustana for some reason sounds like trouble to me. The Cardinals have to fight not only a 6-2 team that’s figuring its spread offense out, but also the enormous weight of expectations.

Which winless team earns its first victory?
Gordon’s take: Buffalo State. Man, hard to believe the Bengals are even in this conversation. I remember making a long drive on the New York State Thruway to Buffalo with Ray Martel to cover a game there with postseason implications. This one’s for you, Ray – I’m taking Buff State.
Pat’s take: Maranatha Baptist. They are outmanned by almost every Division III team but have put together two decent performances the past two weeks against teams a combined 7-9. A win could turn into two before the season’s over and give this struggling program something to work from in the offseason. … And Gordon, thanks for remembering the good-old days, when we had a D3football.com Game of the Week and had several thrillers in a row.
Keith’s take: Buffalo State. It’s one thing to say a winless teams needs a victory. It’s quite another for them to have a chance to get it against another winless team. Morrisville State’s transition to Division III hasn’t been smooth and will get less so when the Bengals take out their frustrations.

Come Saturday evening, how many teams will be tied at the top of the MIAC?
Gordon’s take: Three. St. John’s over Augsburg, Gustavus over St. Olaf and Concordia-Moorhead narrowly over Carleton. That makes three teams 5-2. Whatever the opposite of a stone cold lock is, that’s one of them.
Pat’s take: Two. I see Augsburg over St. John’s, Concordia-Moorhead over Carleton, Gustavus Adolphus over St. Olaf, leaving Concordia and Gustavus at 5-2. Though giving Jerry Haugen and the SJU defense a bye week to prepare for Augsburg makes me doubt that first pick.
Keith’s take: Two. With a possible six-way tie on the table, and the possible invocation of the dreaded Rose Bowl Rule tiebreaker, it’s more like wishful thinking that the MIAC can narrow itself down to an either-or scenario for Week 11.

Which long-running rivalry has the closest game?
Gordon’s take: Amherst-Williams. The Lord Jeffs and Ephs are 5-2 and will be as amped as possible for the 123rd installment of their rivalry. Williams looks like the favorite on paper but Amherst’s home field advantage should even things out.
Pat’s take: Kalamazoo-Albion. The 122nd meeting but the first for Jamie Zorbo as head coach. This was a 16-14 loss for Kalamazoo in Zorbo’s senior year of 1999, when Kalamazoo went 2-4 in the league and Albion went 5-1. And as an assistant at DePauw last season, he saw first-hand how to get a team up for a rivalry game.
Keith’s take: Bowdoin-Colby. This is it for the Polar Bears and White Mules, who meet for the 120th time since 1892. Bowdoin will be looking to come away with an outright title in the CBB rivalry that also includes fellow Maine school Bates.

In this case, the eighth time was the charm. Last week, all our Game of the Week picks were good ones, two of our Top 25 upset picks hit, teams properly got onto the radar and two of our surprisingly close games were both close and surprising.

Not sure if we can match that record here in Week 9, but Keith McMillan, Ryan Tipps and I will try.

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: No. 10 Wesley at No. 16 Salisbury. In the preseason Kickoff guide, I had picked this as my most anticipated game of the year – and the stakes seem to have grown even bigger than I expected. Based on the first installment of the NCAA’s regional rankings, the loser’s chance of getting a playoff bid seems questionable. The winner, on the other hand, will almost certainly get to pass Go and have their playoff payday.
Keith’s take: No. 5 Millsaps at No. 14 Trinity (Texas). A battle of unbeaten teams. Conference title implications. An effect felt as far away as Pennsylvania regarding likely South Region playoff seeding. Yeah. That’s nothing. Subtext galore here: Millsaps, humbled on ESPN and all over the internet by last season’s 15-lateral, game-winning Riley Curry touchdown on the ‘Miracle in Mississippi’ might never be able to return the favor, but they wouldn’t mind humbling the Tigers.
Pat’s take: No. 19 UW-Eau Claire at No. 6 UW-Whitewater. This is the non-conference matchup between two teams that played in Week 2. So these teams know each other just a little better than usual. Plus, this is already a Pool C elimination game for Eau Claire and possibly for Whitewater as well. Last time around, Whitewater settled for field goals three times and survived with a 16-14 win.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: No. 4 Muhlenberg at Dickinson. The Mules have been caught a little off-guard at times, eking out tight wins against Johns Hopkins and Franklin & Marshall in conference play. Dickinson is on par with those two squads – and has a better playmaker under center. And as far as the stat sheets are concerned, it’s rare to find two teams such as Muhlenberg and Dickinson that are so evenly matched on all major offensive and defensive fronts.
Keith’s take: Plymouth State at MIT. The Panthers took control of the NEFC Boyd race and made themselves the playoff bid favorite with a win against Curry last week, but the 5-3 Engineers will be a stout test. RB DeRon Brown, who rushes for a national-best 184 yards per game and has scored 21 touchdowns, should give MIT a chance.
Pat’s take: Marietta at No. 18 Otterbein. This game is sandwiched right in between Capital and Mount Union for Otterbein. ’Nuff said.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 9 Washington & Jefferson. Thomas More’s Week 1 loss to John Carroll must feel like ancient history at this point in the season. Even with three games left, the Saints are riding high, getting a whiff of the playoffs and having their best season in half a decade.
Keith’s take: No. 6 UW-Whitewater. Who knows if it’s really likely, but it’s a startling prospect, that our defending champion could go from No. 2 with first place votes to out of the playoff picture in two weeks. No. 19 UW-Eau Claire lost 16-14 at home in Week 2, the game that counted in the WIAC standings, but both coaching staffs get a do-over when the teams meet for the second time, in a “non-conference” game.
Pat’s take: No. 22 RPI. With Union unveiling a revamped defensive scheme last week against St. Lawrence, which gave up some rushing yardage but just 14 points, none of them after the first quarter. RPI has averaged just 109 yards per game on the ground since the Engineers’ opening two games against Endicott and Utica, so the key for Union is containing quarterback Jimmy Robertson.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: East Texas Baptist. The Tigers’ opponent, Mary Hardin-Baylor, can be interpreted as being out for blood or picking itself up after last week’s loss. What’s more interesting is whether ETBU can capitalize against a team that has shown its flaws.
Keith’s take: I’m curious to see if Cal Lutheran is legitimate, and hosting No. 20 Occidental is their chance to prove it. Also I’ll be keeping an eye on No. 22 RPI since I really want to be there as well as in San Antonio.
Pat’s take: Adrian. The Bulldogs should beat Alma and set up a showdown with Trine for the top spot in the MIAA next week. Adrian’s only overall loss is to the healthy Capital back in Week 1.

Which conference front-runner faces the biggest challenge from a current runner-up: Christopher Newport at N.C. Wesleyan, Northwestern against Crown, or Muhlenberg at Dickinson?
Ryan’s take: Christopher Newport at N.C. Wesleyan. After needing the first couple weeks of the season to adjust to a new head coach and the loss of a good senior class, the Bishops have found ways to put points on the board. Turns out though, behind a running back that put up 225 and 254 yards in his last two outings, that’s CNU’s specialty, too. Repeat after me the key to winning: d-e-f-e-n-s-e.
Keith’s take: Christopher Newport. N.C. Wesleyan seems to have hit its stride, winning four of five and averaging 40.5 points per game in its past four.
Pat’s take: Trinity (Conn.) vs. Amherst. I’m going to go off the script here because I don’t see the UMAC outcome being different than it was when Northwestern won on the road at Crown in September. I think Amherst will provide a bigger challenge to the Bantams.

Which team impresses the most in Week 9 coming off of a lopsided loss last week: Capital, Linfield or Wheaton?
Ryan’s take: Wheaton. As the only team of this bunch playing an opponent with a winning record, the Thunder at least have the biggest opportunity to be impressive. Capital and Linfield will spend the weekend picking on their conferences’ bottom rungs. Wheaton still has a Pool C bid to think about.
Keith’s take: Wheaton. A win at 5-2 Elmhurst would be a strong bounce-back for Wheaton from a thumping at the hands of North Central. Playing a team you know can beat you if you don’t play your best is the best motivation for a week of practice.
Pat’s take: Capital. It’s three losses in a row for the Assmann-less Crusaders and they need a win pretty badly in their final home game.

How will the cluster of East Region teams with one regional loss get solved this week?
Ryan’s take: It won’t. Worcester Polytech will drop off, though, replaced by the in-region one-loss St. John Fisher. The rest of the cluster will have to wait a week for any tangible change.
Keith’s take: It won’t. Hobart and WPI meet head-to-head and that will sort things a little bit. It’s possible we’ll see upsets, but the big games (Rowan-Montclair State and Cortland State-Ithaca) are still ahead.
Pat’s take: It’ll actually get more complicated. Because of the above-mentioned Union/RPI upset, that is. At least I have to be consistent within myself, right?

The NCAA released its first 2008 regional rankings today.

Teams are listed with their regional record first, followed by their overall record. For more information about the playoff format and how participants are determined, check out our FAQ.

EAST REGION
1. Cortland State 7-0 7-0
2. RPI 5-0 6-0
3. Ithaca 5-1 6-1
4. Montclair State 6-1 6-1
5. Rowan 6-1 6-1
6. Hartwick 5-1 5-1
7. Worcester Polytech 6-1 6-1
8. Hobart 5-1 5-1
9. Plymouth State 5-1 7-1
10. Husson 6-0 6-2

NORTH REGION
1. Mount Union 6-0 7-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 7-0 7-0
3. Otterbein 7-0 7-0
4. Wabash 6-0 7-0
5. Trine 7-0 7-0
6. Case Western Reserve 6-0 7-0
7. Wheaton (Ill.) 6-1 6-1
8. Franklin 5-1 6-1
9. Adrian 5-1 6-1
10. Rose-Hulman 7-1 7-1

SOUTH REGION
1. Muhlenberg 7-0 7-0
2. Millsaps 6-0 7-0
3. Washington and Jefferson 6-0 7-0
4. Trinity (Texas) 6-0 7-0
5. Mary Hardin-Baylor 5-0 6-1
6. Hardin-Simmons 7-1 7-1
7. Huntingdon 1-0 7-0
8. Catholic 5-1 6-1
9. Salisbury 2-0 7-1
10. Thomas More 6-1 6-1

WEST REGION
1. Willamette 7-0 8-0
2. Occidental 6-0 6-0
3. Monmouth 8-0 8-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 3-1 6-1
5. UW-Whitewater 5-1 6-1
6. Cal Lutheran 5-1 5-1
7. Redlands 5-1 5-1
8. Northwestern (Minn.) 5-1 7-1
9. Concordia-Moorhead 4-2 5-2
10. St. John’s 5-2 6-2

Get your minds out of the tailgate area and back on to the field. We mean be wary of coming off a loss and limping out of the blocks in the following week’s game. Capital, Wittenberg and UW-Eau Claire all need to avoid that, and Gordon Mann, Pat Coleman and Keith McMillan give you their thoughts on which team won’t be able to.

The trio also kicks in three suggestions for Week 8’s most significant matchup and let you know which conference has no ranked teams but a good shot at playoff success. And as always, once the guys are finished rambling, feel free to chime in yourselves in the comments area below.

Game of the Week
Gordon’s take: No. 16 Willamette at No. 23 Linfield The winner of this game wouldn’t officially punch their playoff ticket for at least another week, but they will have that ticket firmly in hand. Both have picked up the pace offensively, even without the lopsided wins over Lewis & Clark. Can the Bearcats (264 rushing yards per game) keep their ground game churning against Linfield (92 rushing yards per game allowed)?
Pat’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley at Lycoming. The games get ratcheted up a level when there’s no hope for an at-large bid, and that’s what we have here. Plus, add in the traditional grind-it-out aspect of the MAC and the fact that you have the last two MAC dynasties taking the field
and it should be entertaining.
Keith’s take: No. 7 North Central at No. 4 Wheaton. You guys are drunk. I hear you, the losers of your games won’t have quite the playoff shot that the Cardinals or Thunder will retain, but still … We’ve got the Little Brass Bell rivalry, a pair of undefeated top 10 teams and what’s sure to be a raucous Wheaton crowd for the 7 p.m. CT kickoff.

Surprisingly close game
Gordon’s take: Millikin at North Park. NPU has the longest running conference losing streak at 57 games and this is the best chance to stop it. Both teams are winless in CCIW play and the Vikings host this year. Plus, they have showed some offensive spunk, scoring more points than the average opponent against No. 4 Wheaton (Ill.) and No. 7 North Central (Ill.).
Pat’s take: Catholic at No. 18 Hampden-Sydney. Because I’d like to pick this game in the next section down, but I don’t think I honestly can. So all I can say is that it might be closer than expected.
Keith’s take: Ohio Northern at John Carroll. We understood when the Polar Bears lost to North Central, Mount Union and Otterbein, teams that are a combined 18-0. But since a stunning home defeat against Muskingum, Ohio Northern outscored Heidelberg and Marietta 69-0. It might not mean they’re recovered enough to beat 5-1 John Carroll, but the Polar Bears at least have enough of their mojo back to keep it respectable.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Gordon’s take: No. 22 Delaware Valley. The MAC race is wide open, but home-field advantage has been a pretty good predictor of who wins. Set aside games involving King’s and the home team is 6-3 so far. This will be the first time most of the Aggies play in Williamsport and the Warriors have outgained their opponent every game this season.
Pat’s take: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor. I think we should favor the Crusaders in this game. And I think they will struggle at NAIA Southern Oregon, with the long trip, a team less experienced in making these road trips and a running back corps decimated by injury.
Keith’s take: No. 14 Trinity (Texas). Only because I’ve booked a five-segment round-trip to San Antonio next week for the Tigers’ matchup with Millsaps. And backed out on plans to go to the way-too-early-this-year Dutchman’s Shoes Game at RPI to make it happen. So it’ll be just my luck for Sewanee to swoop in and spoil the unbeaten-on-unbeaten action. (The Majors are off this week, for what it’s worth)

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Frank Wilczynski. The junior quarterback for Rowan (remember them?) already set the school record for quarterback rushing touchdowns in a season (eight). He’s also thrown 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The Profs play Buffalo State this week before starting a three-game stretch against Kean, Montclair State and New Jersey that could put Rowan back in the NCAA postseason.
Pat’s take: Plymouth State. I think there’s a chance that Curry’s long NEFC winning streak ends right here.
Keith’s take: St. Scholastica. I’ve got to boost the power source to get the radar to reach Duluth, but it’ll be worth it if Division III’s newest team can get its first win. The Saints were an overtime away from winning at Macalester two weeks ago. They’ll be hosting Trinity Bible, which is coming off a win against Minot State-Bottineau, and playing at Public Schools Stadium.

Which team has the biggest hangover from last week’s loss; Capital, Wittenberg or UW-Eau Claire?
Gordon’s take: Wittenberg. Capital has a home game against a ranked opponent and UW-Eau Claire can point to last season as evidence that there’s still a thin Blugold chance they make the NCAA playoffs by winning out. Wittenberg has neither as they head east to Carnegie Mellon with two losses after last week’s heartbreaker against Wabash.
Pat’s take: Capital. The Crusaders have struggled with their crosstown rivals even when they’ve had good years. Otterbein is a little better now and just as motivated as they always are. The Cardinals need this win because it doesn’t get any easier, with Mount Union and John Carroll yet to come.
Keith’s take: Wittenberg. The Tigers, who lost in painful fashion to a competitive rival, and had their playoff and conference title chances sink with it, have the most reason for a hangover. But there’s nothing like a televised game (at Carnegie Mellon on ESPNU) to get players to snap into it, so the hangover might not preclude Wittenberg from winning.

Which lost-its-luster game would you just as soon avoid?
Gordon’s take: St. Norbert atRipon. If we’re talking strictly in terms of postseason implications, Guilford/W&L is slightly less relevant since Hampden-Sydney needs one win and Monmouth needs two clinch their automatic bids. But, given the chance, I’d enjoy seeing Josh Vogelbach and the Guilford offense at work.
Pat’s take: Guilford at Washington and Lee. I would’ve pictured this game with an impact on the race for the ODAC crown. Instead, it’s the only conference game this week that doesn’t involve a team within one game of the lead in the loss column.
Keith’s take: St. Thomas at Carleton. It’s not so much that I’d want to avoid this one. But if I were planning to catch a Carleton game, I’d be crossing my fingers that the Knights can make it to Nov. 8 (Week 10) at Concordia-Moorhead without picking up a second MIAC loss, and hoping the Cobbers do the same. That way we can at least have a tidy conclusion to a seven-way race.

Which conference without a team ranked in this week’s poll will go deepest into the playoffs?
Gordon’s take: The MIAC. It has to be someone in the West, right? I could see the MIAC rep getting a favorable match-up with the MWC or the IIAC champ. Pencil UW-Whitewater in as the top seed and a NWC/SCIAC first round match-up. Otherwise that region looks pretty open.
Pat’s take: The NESCAC. Matchups may dictate otherwise but I can see it likely that every one of the conferences currently without a ranked team goes one-and-out. So here’s a chance for the NESCAC to tie for first.
Keith’s take: The MIAC. Gordon stole my answer and my reasoning. A low seed in the North is going to get a game at Mount Union or Wabash or Wheaton/North Central. Oooh, fun. In the South, enjoy your trip to Muhlenberg, or maybe Millsaps. You get the point. It’ll be a low-seeded team out of the East or the West, perhaps a No. 7, that springs an upset or two. And although MIAC teams have been beating up on each other, it doesn’t seem like whoever lasts longest will be worse for the wear. This is also the year for the MWC champ to make its move.