D3football Daily Dose

We’ve predicted every playoff game this season and every Stagg Bowl since 1999. With the championship of the 2007 season upon us we expend our pool of predictors to include people with connections to each team and to the Stagg Bowl, as well as the rest of our Salem broadcast crew.

Last year we predicted Mount Union would win, which is a lot like predicting the sun will come up — admittedly, it’s a safe bet. Ric Brienza, Mount Union broadcaster and publisher of mtunionfootball.com, was our “champion” with a 34-27 prediction in favor of the Purple Raiders.

Previous years’ picks: 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006

He leads off our Triple-take take.

Ric Brienza, publisher, Mtunionfootball.com
The key for both teams will be to limit mistakes and finish drives, especially in bad weather conditions. Mount Union has done that better in each of the last two championship games and that’s a big reason they won both. It looks like weather will unfortunately play a factor in the game. If it isn’t miserable conditions that limit 90% of each team’s offense the Purple Raiders pull away for a comfortable victory. If the weather is really bad, it will be a one touchdown or closer game.
Mount Union 38, Whitewater 17

Pat Coleman, publisher, D3football.com
UW-Whitewater has something it didn’t have the past two years, in a mobile quarterback. It has a healthy Justin Beaver. It lacks the big threat at tight end and the fast guy on the outside. But then again, Whitewater didn’t try to stretch the field too much in 2005 and 2006. The play-caller has changed, the signal-caller has changed and the ground game is just as reliable. But the real change is on defense, where it does seem the Warhawks are better than last year. The secondary will need to continue its ball-hawking, the front four will have to apply the pressure and the linebackers are big, fast, and can make plays. However, I’m not sure that’s enough against this Mount Union team. If the weather is truly awful, knock seven off each side.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 21

Keith McMillan, D3football.com
For UW-Whitewater to make its third time the charm, it’ll have to figure out how to impose its will on Mount Union. That means dictating the tempo with long drives offensively, and tackling well on defense so the Warhawks can get off the field on three-and-outs. Big names aside, line play and tackling will be keys Saturday — the Purple Raiders just happen to feature one of the most difficult-to-tackle foursomes we’ve seen in Pierre Garcon, Nate Kmic, Justin Wray and Greg Micheli. The Warhawks counter with studs at defensive end and linebacker and a senior-laden secondary. UW-Whitewater can pull the upset — QB Danny Jones, or a scheme from coach Lance Leipold might make Stagg Bowl XXXV different than the past two, but with a Mount Union team with so few weaknesses and one that is so rarely unprepared, I fear we’re in for more of the same.
Mount Union 33, UW-Whitewater 20

Gordon Mann, D3football.com
If Division III football were a different animal, there would be more talk about whether this year’s Mount Union team is one of the best Division III teams of all time. With little video evidence and most Division III fans appropriate focused mainly on their own team, that’s a tough discussion to have. Of course, that discussion doesn’t happen at all unless Mount Union defeats UW-Whitewater tomorrow. And so they will. Justin Beaver is a great running back and an inspirational story, but he was held in check by Mary Hardin-Baylor last week. The Crusaders have a great run defense, allowing just 48.7 yards per game. That’s second in the country to Mount Union who has halved the total to an unreal 24.2 yards per game. The task of keeping pace with the Purple Juggernaut’s offense falls on Danny Jones and the UWW passing game. Jones is a lot of fun to watch, fleet-footed and cannon-armed. But he needs his receivers to get open and make big plays. Outside of Neil Mrkvicka, can anyone else get free from the vise-lock defense of Matt Kostelnik, Jonah Wilson and company? It’s been a great season for the Warhawks in which they have achieved excellence while changing their quarterback, offensive coordinator and head coach. Unfortunately for them, this much remains the same.
Mount Union 35, UW-Whitewater 17

Tom Pattison, Warhawkfootball.com
The Warhawks come into this year’s Stagg Bowl with a different attitude. Not the pressure of the past two years. Senior leadership is the difference in this year’s team. Hawks will also ride the wave of emotion after watching teammate Justin Beaver accept the Gagliardi Trophy. Third time’s the charm.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24

John McGraw, D3football.com
Since this is the third installment of Mount Union vs. UW-Whitewater, who’s Rocky Balboa and who’s Clubber Lang? Somehow I don’t see either Justin Beaver or Nate Kmic shouting out “Yo, Adrian!” after the game. That being said, I admit I picked Whitewater last year and that didn’t turn out too well. The Purple Raiders have bludgeoned everyone they’ve played this year and I think that continues in Salem. UW-Whitewater and Justin Beaver will put up a fight, but Mount’s too much in the end.
Mount Union 31, UW-Whitewater 17

Ryan Tipps, D3football.com
It’s hard to say something that hasn’t been said in some format at least once before. And the even harder part is being on the outside looking in on whatever trick Coach Kehres has up his sleeve for the Stagg Bowl (a la Greg Micheli in ‘06). We all know what makes Mount Union good: practically everything. But looking at the opponent, I like that UW-Whitewater has a bigger and more mobile offensive line than the Purple Raiders are used to facing. I like that UW-W has played in snow and ice already this year (have you seen Salem’s forecast?). And I like that UW-W has a new and dynamic crop of playmakers and coaches that will try to jazz things up. No, this will definitely not be played like the Stagg Bowls of 2005 and ‘06. Though that doesn’t mean we’ll see a drastically different result. Mount’s just that good.
Mount Union 38, UW-Whitewater 20

Matt Barnhart, Bridgewaterfootball.com/Stone Station
Entering both the St. John’s game (’03) and Mary Hardin-Baylor game (’04), the Purple Raiders looked unstoppable, allowing only 6.5 and 8.7 points to their opponents, respectively. This year is no different, with only 10 touchdowns being scored against MUC. But as in 2003 and 2004, playoff opponents found a way to beat The Machine. They did it by sticking to the run, and forcing MUC to throw. SJU and MHB combined for 116 rushes for 555 yards. They also combined to hold the Raiders to only 211 rushing yards -– on 69 carries –- and 25-of-57 passing with five interceptions. That’s not what Mount Union wants to do. This season, UW-Whitewater has nearly rushed (679) exactly twice as much as they have thrown (340). The Warhawk defensive line — a six-man rotation — has combined for 50.5 tackles for a loss and 35 sacks this year. It’s also worth noting that UWW has forced 49 turnovers this year – second best in Division III. If they can stop the run, and the Gagliardi winner carries the ball 35 to 40 times, I like UWW in a close one.
UW-Whitewater 27, Mount Union 24

There are just two games left, so it’s time to go into some of the thought process we use to predict these scores. Remember, Triple-Take is the weekly playoff score prediction blog from the people who live and breathe D3football.com: Publisher Pat Coleman, Around the Nation columnist Keith McMillan and Deputy Managing Editor Gordon Mann.

Last week’s results, with Gordon going 4-for-4, Pat going 3-for-4 and Keith going 2-for-4.
Mary Hardin-Baylor 27, Wesley 10. Gordon’s pick of Mary Hardin-Baylor 28-20 was the closest.
Bethel 27, Central 13. Gordon’s pick was the closest, as the only one to pick Bethel. (Guess he knew it would snow.)
UW-Whitewater 47, Wabash 7. Keith’s pick of 44-21 was the closest.
Mount Union 52, St. John Fisher 10. Pat’s pick of 40-17 was the closest.

On to the games!

Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-1) at UW-Whitewater (13-1)
Pat’s take: I really want to take Mary Hardin-Baylor and shock the world but I don’t know that they have enough offensive diversity to get it done. The year they made that run into December, remember, they did it on turf when the weather was bad. They played at Washington and Jefferson in the quarterfinals and Mount Union in the semis, and though it was cold, the field was consistent. They won’t see that this weekend and that’s the deciding factor in my mind. If they take better care of the ball and stick to their game plan they will win. However, Whitewater has a way of getting the ball back and they will here.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 21.

Keith’s take: I have a real strong feeling that the other semifinal will be won and lost in the trenches. We can be certain that Mary Hardin-Baylor will be more careful with the ball in the early going this time around after turnovers got them in trouble early during October’s 41-14 loss at UW-Whitewater. If UMHB’s defensive line keeps blocks off Jerrell Freeman and Eric Henri, the Crusaders are good enough defensively to keep it close. And that’s where Mary Hardin-Baylor is effective, not so much jumping on teams, but wearing them down. Both teams will try to establish the run, but look for UMHB to be more conservative while the Warhawks are opening things up as they gain confidence in Danny Jones weekly. The Crusaders definitely have a chance here, but the smart pick is the Warhawks.
UW-Whitewater 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 24.

Gordon’s take: There has been a lot of focus on how Mary Hardin-Baylor committed five turnovers against UW-Whitewater earlier this year, leading to 24 Warhawk points. That could certainly be an aberration for the Crusaders who only had about 1.5 turnovers per game in all their other contests. But it’s not an aberration for the Warhawks who have forced 48 turnovers this season, including 14 in the playoffs. Even if Mary Hardin-Baylor doesn’t give up the ball, can they sustain a drive against Warhawks? In two games the Crusaders have had 27 offensive series against the Warhawks. They have had one drive that went more than 50 yards. They have had 15 that 10 or less, including a handful where they went backwards. UW-Whitewater has a balanced enough offense and aggressive enough defense that they will put points on the board. Can the Crusaders do the same?
UW-Whitewater 28 Mary Hardin Baylor 14.

Bethel (13-1) at Mount Union (14-0)
Pat’s take: This isn’t a place to take dumb chances. It’s a place to take smart ones, like sticking with your running game down by two scores in the fourth quarter, or going for the end zone with a running back on a swing pass rather than kick a field goal to close the half. It’s not a place to go for it on fourth down from your own 25. It’s not a place to be at less than 100% health. If, and only if, Bethel can control the ball for 40 minutes, like it did at Central, or like Augustana did at Mount Union in 1999, this will be a competitive game. But while I expect Mount Union to score quickly, I don’t expect Bethel to be able to do it every time down the floor. Wait, sorry, field.
Mount Union 48, Bethel 20.

Keith’s take: Bethel seems to be built to grind, so if it can do a couple of things well early, we’ll have an interesting semifinal. They have got to either jump on Mount Union first or limit the Purple Raiders’ start, perhaps by forcing field goal attempts on early drives instead of giving up touchdowns. To stay competitive early, as Mount Union’s last two opponents have failed to do, they have to finish tackles, especially the first guy who gets to Nate Kmic. The Purple Raiders lost their last meeting with a MIAC champion, back in 2003’s Stagg Bowl, which might provide the Royals a reason to believe they won’t be blown off the field. Bottom line, if Bethel can turn it into a grind, they have a chance. Mount Union’s been too diverse offensively and too stout defensively for everyone else though, so I’ll go:
Mount Union 41, Bethel 13.

Gordon’s take: Mount Union hasn’t played anyone close enough this year to give us a good sense what its weakness is, if any, but the Ithaca game might be the best indication. The Bombers scored 18 points by throwing the ball for 324 yards. The only other team to score more than one touchdown against the Purple Raiders was Otterbein, who had two passing touchdowns. That’s not to say Mount Union is vulnerable against the pass, but you need a good passing attack to have any hope against this juggernaut. If you can move the ball in the air…if you don’t commit turnovers…if you don’t give up 20+ yard gains to Nate Kmic…if pigs fly…maybe you can beat the Purple Raiders. The Royals’ offense is primarily a rushing one and their 167.3 passing yards per game ranks second last in the MIAC, ahead of only Hamline. Not a good sign. Nor is the fact that quarterback Ben Wetzell is banged up from last week’s game at Central. Plus I can’t shake the feeling that Bethel will battle “just happy to be here” feelings of their own, after a long road trip to a prohibitive favorite during the deepest playoff run in Royals history. All that adds up to a lopsided affair in Alliance.
Mount Union 42 Bethel 7.

Looking like a tough weekend weatherwise in parts of the bracket this weekend.

I, for example, am projecting missed extra points in the North and West regional finals because of weather. But those are only a point or two either direction.

In last week’s picks, Keith and I both went 8-for-8 and Gordon was 7-for-8. Gordon got his in just under the gun, in a comment post eight minutes before kickoff.

Mount Union 59, New Jersey 7. Closest pick, Gordon (Mount Union 42-7). None picked TCNJ with more than seven points.
St. John Fisher 38, Curry 7. Closest pick, Pat (SJF 31-10). All three had St. John Fisher in the 30s.
Central 37, St. John’s 7. Closest pick, Pat (barely, Central 27-24).
Bethel 21, UW-Eau Claire 12. Closest pick, Gordon (Bethel 21-17).
Mary Hardin-Baylor 64, N.C. Wesleyan 0. Closest pick, Pat (UMHB 48-21).
Wesley 38, Muhlenberg 21. Closest pick, Pat (Wesley 28-20).
UW-Whitewater 59, North Central 28. Closest pick, Pat (UWW 38-17).
Wabash 38, Case Western Reserve 23. Closest pick, Pat (Wabash 30-19).

Here’s our take on the regional finals.

South Region
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Wesley 27
Keith: Wesley 34, Mary Hardin-Baylor 31 (OT)
Gordon: Mary Hardin-Baylor 28 Wesley 20

West Region
Pat: Central 20, Bethel 13
Keith: Central 29, Bethel 16
Gordon: Bethel 24 Central 21 (OT)

North Region
Pat: UW-Whitewater 34, Wabash 20
Keith: UW-Whitewater 44, Wabash 21
Gordon: UW-Whitewater 30 Wabash 17

East Region
Pat: Mount Union 40, St. John Fisher 17
Keith: Mount Union 45, St. John Fisher 27
Gordon: Mount Union 35 St. John Fisher 21

Second round of games, with just eight being played on Saturday, four at noon and four at 1 p.m.

Before we begin our predictions of the Week 13 games, let’s take a look back at Week 12.

Winners straight up: Keith McMillan 13-3, Pat Coleman 12-4, Gordon Mann 11-5. Of note, of course, all three missed on Curry beating Hartwick and Muhlenberg beating Salisbury. Keith redeemed his pick against UW-Eau Claire by calling N.C. Wesleyan over Washington and Jefferson.

Closest score on each game: Mount Union/Ithaca (42-18 actual score) goes to Pat (predicted 42-10), TCNJ/RPI (17-13) goes to Keith (13-10), Hartwick/Curry (21-42) goes to Gordon, if anyone (43-42), St. John Fisher/Hobart (24-7) goes to Gordon (31-28), Central/Olivet (38-17) goes to Pat (41-14), St. John’s/Redlands (41-13) goes to Pat (27-17), UW-Eau Claire/St. Norbert (24-21) goes to Pat (24-20), Bethel/Concordia Wis. (28-0) goes to Gordon (35-7), N.C. Wesleyan/W&J (35-34 OT) goes to Keith (38-35), Mary Hardin-Baylor/Trinity (52-23) goes to Keith (42-24), Muhlenberg/Salisbury (31-21) goes to Pat, if anyone (27-31), Wesley/Hampden-Sydney (45-17) goes to Keith (35-13), UW-Whitewater/Capital (34-14) goes to Keith (24-12), North Central/Franklin (44-42) goes to Pat (35-34), Wabash/Mt. St. Joseph (31-21) goes to Pat (30-21) and Case/Widener (21-20) goes to Keith (22-14).

Gordon Mann has been unable to join me and Keith because of his holiday travel schedule, and as it turns out, we have no dissenting view on any of this weekend’s games.

This week’s predictions
New Jersey at Mount Union
Pat: Mount Union 38, TCNJ 7
Keith: Mount Union 28, TCNJ 6

Curry at St. John Fisher
Pat: St. John Fisher 31, Curry 10
Keith: St. John Fisher 31, Curry 17

St. John’s at Central
Pat: Central 27, St. John’s 24 (OT)
Keith: Central 24, St. John’s 22

UW-Eau Claire at Bethel
Pat: Bethel 35, UW-Eau Claire 27
Keith: Bethel 27, UW-Eau Claire 17

N.C. Wesleyan at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Pat: Mary Hardin-Baylor 48, N.C. Wesleyan 21
Keith: Mary Hardin-Baylor 45, N.C. Wesleyan 35

Muhlenberg at Wesley
Pat: Wesley 28, Muhlenberg 20
Keith: Wesley 20, Muhlenberg 14

North Central at UW-Whitewater
Pat: UW-Whitewater 38, North Central 17
Keith: UW-Whitewater 31, North Central 14

Wabash at Case Western Reserve
Pat: Wabash 30, Case 19
Keith: Wabash 26, Case 19

Big question will be if quarterback Mitch Schaeuble plays for UW-Eau Claire after he ended last week’s game at St. Norbert with blurred vision. St. John’s, playing Central, kings of the comeback win, is most likely to make us regret both picking against them, followed by Muhlenberg.

D3football.com editor and publisher Pat Coleman and I first took stabs at playoff scores on a meandering ride from our Northern Virginia home base to Thiel (Northwestern Pa.) for a 2005 first-round game against Johns Hopkins. Though we might have been just trying to kill time then, what we found when we compared our guesses, er, predictions turned out to be interesting enough to share. We gave it another try the next week and away we went, doing it again in 2006.

We brought the tradition back for a third year, bringing another wise mind, Gordon Mann, on board for the ride and making it our weekly Triple-take. The goal isn’t to prove which of the three of us is smartest or coolest — that’s obvious, right?. It’s to give fans from Curry to Redlands and everywhere in between an idea of what is expected to happen.

We’re well aware that this is the playoffs, when top teams face off in high-pressure situations, ensuring things don’t always go according to plan. It’s when respect is earned and minds are changed.

So cut us a break if we don’t pick your team by a satisfying score. There are reasons to like everyone that’s left, but our job is to be honest. You might find that even we can’t agree on which way these games will go.

We did not consult with each other at all — the three of us did our score predictions separately.

We’d like to hear what you think too, under two conditions: 1. We keep the bashing of each other to a bare minimum, and 2. You flesh out your thoughts a little bit.

Sound good? Then here goes, beginning in the East:

Ithaca at Mount Union
Coleman: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 10
Mann: Mount Union 42, Ithaca 7
McMillan: Mount Union 52, Ithaca 7

New Jersey at RPI
Coleman: TCNJ 14, RPI 6
Mann: RPI 21, TCNJ 17
McMillan: TCNJ 13, RPI 10

Hartwick at Curry
Coleman: Hartwick 32, Curry 28
Mann: Hartwick 43, Curry 42
McMillan: Hartwick 33, Curry 27, OT

Hobart at St. John Fisher
Coleman: St. John Fisher 38, Hobart 28
Mann: St. John Fisher 31, Hobart 28, OT
McMillan: St. John Fisher 35, Hobart 34

Olivet at Central
Coleman:Central 41, Olivet 14
Mann: Central 35, Olivet 21
McMillan: Central 40, Olivet 7

Redlands at St. John’s
Coleman: St. John’s 27, Redlands 17
Mann: St. John’s 28, Redlands 21
McMillan: St. John’s 21, Redlands 20

UW-Eau Claire at St. Norbert
Coleman: Eau Claire 24, St. Norbert 21
Mann: Eau Claire 21, St. Norbert 10
McMillan: St. Norbert 28, Eau Claire 21

Concordia (Wis.) at Bethel
Coleman: Bethel 41, Concordia 6
Mann: Bethel 35, Concordia 7
McMillan: Bethel 30, Concordia 13

North Carolina Wesleyan at Washington and Jefferson
Coleman: Washington and Jefferson 50, N.C. Wesleyan 16
Mann: Washington and Jefferson 31, N.C. Wesleyan 21
McMillan: N.C. Wesleyan 38, Washington and Jefferson 35

Trinity (Texas) at Mary Hardin-Baylor
Coleman: Mary Hardin-Baylor 41, Trinity 14
Mann: Mary Hardin-Baylor 35, Trinity 14
McMillan: Mary Hardin-Baylor 42, Trinity 24

Salisbury at Muhlenberg
Coleman: Salisbury 31, Muhlenberg 27
Mann: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14
McMillan: Salisbury 20, Muhlenberg 14

Hampden-Sydney at Wesley
Coleman: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 28
Mann: Wesley 28, Hampden-Sydney 21
McMillan: Wesley 35, Hampden-Sydney 13

Capital at UW-Whitewater
Coleman: Whitewater 20, Capital 13
Mann: Whitewater 21, Capital 7
McMillan: Whitewater 24, Capital 12

North Central at Franklin
Coleman: North Central 35, Franklin 34
Mann: North Central 31, Franklin 21
McMillan: North Central 33, Franklin 30, 2 OT

Mt. St. Joseph at Wabash
Coleman: Wabash 30, Mt. St. Joseph 21
Mann: Wabash 21, Mt. St. Joseph 10
McMillan: Wabash 34, Mt. St. Joseph 21

Widener at Case Western Reserve
Coleman: Widener 20, Case Western 17
Mann: Widener 17, Case Western 14, OT
McMillan: Case Western 22, Widener 14

Unanimous favorites: Mount Union, Hartwick, St. John Fisher, Central, St. John’s, Bethel, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Salisbury, Wesley, UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash

By split decision: TCNJ, UW-Eau Claire, Washington and Jefferson, Widener

Every week, Keith McMillan, a guest and I take a tour through the weekend’s games, giving you our take on what the big games, big upsets and new names will be coming out of the upcoming week. Our Triple-Take guest this week is D3football.com broadcaster John McGraw, who also has some loyalties he needs to disclose later.

Game of the Week
John’s take: RPI at Union (Dutchman’s Shoes). There’s certainly nothing like rivalry weekend in Division III football. Obviously there are many great rivalry games around the country and to the fans of those particular teams and those games, that is their “game of the week.” But, not only will the Dutchman’s Shoes be on the line at Bailey Field in Schenectady, N.Y., when Union hosts RPI, a Liberty League championship and a playoff bid could go to the winner. The four-team race in the Liberty League makes my head spin, but either team helps their chances greatly with a victory over their rival.
Keith’s take: No. 4 Central at No. 12 Wartburg. I think you are all well aware by now where my Game of the Week is. Hampden-Sydney and Randolph-Macon play a huge rivalry game on the campus of my alma mater with a conference title and playoff bid on the line. But truthfully, Central-Wartburg and No. 3 St. John’s visit to No. 16 Bethel are more important. Both have wide-ranging playoff implications if the lower-ranked team forces its way into the 32-team field without knocking its 9-0 opponent out of the mix. Since I had to choose, I went with the game in Iowa, which is slightly more likely to produce a fantastic ending, since that’s pretty much the way Central likes ‘em all.
Pat’s take: No. 10 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. This game, along with the game Keith chose, can impact two conference automatic bids, in this case the CCIW and the MIAA. Hope and Olivet, two of the three teams tied for first in the MIAA, played Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan respectively and their opponents’ records are the tiebreaker that it appears will settle the automatic bid. Oh, and Wheaton can win the CCIW automatic bid with a victory, so that’s important too. IWU can win the automatic bid if it wins and North Central loses at Carthage.

Surprisingly Close Game
John’s take: Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. Last year, Wheaton hammered Illinois Wesleyan 49-14 at home en route to an appearance in the NCAA playoffs. In the CCIW preseason poll, the coaches selected Wheaton first and Illinois Wesleyan sixth. While IWU hasn’t had a winning season since 2002, the Titans are looking for a repeat of their home upset of Wheaton in 2005.
Keith’s take: St. Olaf at St. Thomas. Coming off an 85-point week, the 7-2 Oles probably can’t play their way into the postseason, and they know it. That could leave room for a sloppy performance against a 2-7 Tommies team that put up some serious offense in a 51-34 loss at St. John’s two weeks ago. There are some other key games that could be close, like Capital/Baldwin-Wallace, but that wouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Pat’s take: Moravian at No. 15 Muhlenberg. Not that I think Muhlenberg is going to lose this game, per se, but the rivalry has a little added bonus this year now that both teams are again in the same conference after a quarter-century. Moravian hasn’t had a bad season itself, coming into the game a 6-3, and could be fighting for an ECAC postseason “bowl” game, not to mention the spoiler aspect of knocking Muhlenberg out of a potential first- or even second-round home game. Picture a 17-13 game, depending on weather.

Top 25 team most likely to be upset
John’s take: No. 4 Central. The last three times the Dutch have gone on the road, they have come out with a victory of seven points or less, including a 37-34 triple-overtime thriller over Dubuque on Oct. 20. Only three of Central’s nine games this season have been decided by more than one score. Aside from a hiccup against Augsburg, Wartburg has been tough at home all season. I’m not sure how much magic the Dutch have left, if this game comes down to the wire, after so many nail-biters already.
Keith’s take: No. 9 Wabash. There are a bunch of top 25 teams who are playing for their playoff lives or even a postseason home game, but the 9-0 Little Giants might have wrapped up both in the North. DePauw can’t affect the playoff picture much, but at home and at 7-2, it’s no slouch, and won’t have trouble finding a reason to want to knock off its Monon Bell rival anyway.
Pat’s take: No. 19 UW-Eau Claire. When in doubt, go with the WIAC team, right? At 4-5, UW-Stout hasn’t been playing too badly after the offseason upheaval and these rivals, separated by 26 miles of I-94, have played some of their common opponents very favorably. Besides, Stout can play spoiler to Eau Claire’s faint playoff hopes.

They’ll be on your radar
John’s take: Cal Lutheran. After an 0-2 start under new coach Ben McEnroe, it appeared the Kingsmen would be bound for a rebuilding year. Since then, Cal Lu (5-0, 5-3) has won five out of its last six games and can clinch the SCIAC auto-bid to the NCAA playoffs with a victory at home over Redlands. Not bad for a program that has never been to the NCAA tournament.
Keith’s take: North Central. The Cardinals don’t even play the biggest CCIW game Saturday, but they can get their hands on a share of the conference title, unlike its opponent Carthage, which has an identical 7-2 record. While Wheaton is controlling its destiny against Illinois Wesleyan, North Central will have to motivate itself with hopes of a three-way tie.
Pat’s take: Curry. You heard it here first – the Colonels might be able to win a playoff game this season if they beat Coast Guard and maintain their lofty seeding. But that’s only because I can’t take Olivet again this week after picking them for Week 10.

Which game most deserves the “Biggest Little Game in America” designation that more than one rivalry claims?
John’s take: Having witnessed the Williams-Amherst rivalry first-hand (2002), I’m hard-pressed to pick against it. But, then again, what rivalry game sells out almost three weeks before the two teams take the field? The Cortaca Jug game between Ithaca and Cortland. It’s the hottest ticket in town when these two schools get together on the gridiron and tickets have sold out five times in the last six years. While Ithaca leads the all-time series, nine of the last 10 games have come down to the final minute and the last two have gone to overtime. Throw in the always miserable upstate New York weather in November, an always loud and boisterous crowd and lots of school spirit, and that’s what makes this rivalry great. (Full disclosure: I graduated from Ithaca and broadcast football at Cortland for four years).
Keith’s take: With ESPN’s College GameDay on site for Amherst-Williams, this one’s a no-brainer, at least for this Saturday.
Pat’s take: Someone has to stick up for Wabash-DePauw, right? Best part about the Monon Bell game is that it outdraws Cortaca and the schools somehow manage to pick up the pieces after this game and still compete in the playoffs. The NESCAC folks would have you believe that you can’t possible then go back and play in a playoff game after competing in the big season-ending rivalry, but Wabash would beg to differ. DePauw would beg to be able to beg to differ, but that’s a different story.

Who will have Pool C hopes surprisingly dashed?
John’s take: Bethel. A Week 1 loss to Buena Vista dooms the Royals if they cannot get past the Johnnies on Saturday. While it is going to be possible for a two-loss team to make the playoffs, I’m not sure if the Royals will be one of those teams. Bethel’s fate could be decided by how things play out in southern California and upstate New York.
Keith’s take: Redlands. Despite going 7-1 to this point with a non-conference road win against a likely playoff team, Whitworth, it appears even a victory over Cal Lutheran won’t guarantee the Bulldogs a spot in the playoffs. A three-way tie would be broken by the Rose Bowl rule, rewarding the spot to the team who has been to the playoffs least recently, sending the Kingsmen to the postseason even if they pick up their fourth loss, unless 3-5 Whittier manages to knock off Occidental and make the Redlands-CLU winner the automatic qualifier. Too bad the Bulldogs’ 1 p.m. local kickoff leaves them time to get over to Whittier to watch Occidental agonizingly ruin their plans in a 7 p.m. game.
Pat’s take: Mt. St. Joseph. At 4-5, Thomas More is playing for a .500 record, there’s a local rivalry on the line and of course, the spoiler factor. The Saints have had moments of brilliance (10-9 loss to Geneva) but haven’t quite put it all together against a good team. Does Mt. St. Joseph not take the Bridge Bowl game seriously enough? Preserving a one-loss resume heading into Selection Sunday should be enough motivation.

What winless team takes advantage of its last chance to get off the schneid?
John’s take: King’s. Only one time in the D3football.com era has King’s finished below .500. This year, the Monarchs have gone winless in nine contests. They’ve been close, a two-point loss to Hampden-Sydney, a three-point loss versus Albright and a four-point loss to Lebanon Valley. For a program that’s usually in the top half of the MAC, I can’t see King’s going 0-10. The Monarchs are 6-2 against FDU-Florham in their last eight meetings. Look for Tore Alaimo and company to go out on a winning note.
Keith’s take: Bates. Boy, it’s hard to really get behind any team that hasn’t pulled one together by this point. Playing for a win is sure to keep the competitive flames stoked, but confidence can go out the window quick if the game gets off to a bad start. In the case of the Bobcats, they just seem to have one of the most beatable opponents in 2-5 Hamilton, which scores a paltry 10.7 points per game.
Pat’s take: Juniata. It didn’t get any better for the Eagles after moving from the MAC to the Centennial and after losing two of the first four games by one score, Juniata has lost its last five by an average of three touchdowns. Juniata needs this one.

Every week, Keith McMillan, a guest and I take a tour through the weekend’s games, giving you our take on what the big games, big upsets and new names will be coming out of the upcoming week. Our Triple-Take guest this week is Ryan Carlson, former Linfield defensive lineman and publisher of Catdomealumni.com.

And our guest headline this week is from Ryan’s wife, Kelly, who described the scene of each of us updating our respective sites on a Friday night when we were in Oregon. (Never fear, there was at least beer being downed at the time.)

Game of the Week
Ryan’s take: Linfield at Whitworth. Being a Linfield honk, I think this is an easy call. It will be when the No. 12 Wildcats (4-2, 3-1 NWC) travel out to Spokane, Washington to lock up with the Pirates (5-2, 4-0 NWC). This game has major implications on not only the NWC title but will essentially eliminate one of the two from Pool B contention. The Rats (as Whitworth is known in NWC circles) feature a ball-hawking defense and grinding zone running attack. Linfield will counter with a surging defense and a more balanced offense than in years past.
Keith’s take: Rochester at RPI. About a dozen games this week will make or break the season for two teams. But how many affect four teams? The undefeated Engineers host the Yellowjackets in a game that pits two of the four Liberty League teams still alive for the crown and AQ. Hobart at Union matches the other two. Depending on the outcomes, next week’s RPI/Union Dutchman Shoes rivalry game could have title and playoff implications.
Pat’s take: Albright at Widener. It isn’t quite the culmination of what started as an awful season for the MAC but it’ll be pretty close, with the conference’s last two unbeaten teams facing off. (Albright still must play Delaware Valley the following week.) And this isn’t just because I’ll be there. Albright has the best shot at getting a decent NCAA playoff seed if it wins out, but has the best two teams for last.

Surprisingly close game
Ryan’s take: Carthage at Wheaton. This is a shot in the dark but after getting pasted last year by the Thunder look for the Red Men to keep it surprising close with the No. 4 team in the country. Of course, I’m probably way off base and the Thunder will roll by a double Monkey Stomp.
Keith’s take: Monmouth at Knox. The Scots have outscored the Prairie Fire 173-14 in the past four meetings, going back to a 27-23 game in 2002. The only reason to believe it might be surprisingly close is that its The Bronze Turkey rivalry game, and strange things have been known to happen. Mostly to the trophy though (Google it if you need to read up, they’re great stories).
Pat’s take: Washington and Jefferson at Thomas More. W&J may be content to rest on its laurels and this is a long trip to suburban Cincinnati. Last year Thomas More lost this game on the road 21-12.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Ryan’s take: No. 24 Occidental. The Tigers (6-1) finally lost in the regular season with a resounding thud as the Cal Lutheran Kingsmen sacked Oxy 43-25 last weekend. Oxy will host a solid Chapman Panthers (5-2) squad that has ripped off 4 impressive wins in a row including a 44-30 victory over Cal Lu. I look for Oxy to still be reeling from last weekend and for Chapman to add to the misery.
Keith’s take: No. 18 Bethel. It’s not so much that I think 4-4 Augsburg is a better team, though they have averaged 38.3 points in three games since upsetting still-ranked Wartburg. I just know that it’s tough for players not to look ahead to the game that makes the season — Week 11’s St. John’s game in the Royals’ case.
Pat’s take: No. 16 Muhlenberg. Not that we don’t like Muhlenberg, but homestanding Ursinus is 7-1, 5-1 in the Centennial and playing for its postseason life the final two weeks. Although Muhlenberg ends with a rivalry game against Moravian, this wouldn’t be considered a trap game for the Mules – they know they need this game and the rivalry with Moravian has recently been described as more important to the alumni than the current players. Ursinus averages nearly twice as many yards on offense as Muhlenberg allows on average on defense, so it will be a good test for the Muhlenberg D.

They’ll be on your radar
Ryan’s take: Case Western Reserve, hosting Washington U. In following the Pool B thread of Post Patterns it seems that in order to help increase the Northwest Conference’s case for a Pool B slot a loss by Case Western would be a positive event. Heck I live in the Pacific Northwest so it doesn’t seem too odd to be rooting for a school named Washington University even if said school is from Missouri.
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. Before they can clash with Wheaton for the CCIW championship, they have to get past Saturday’s game at North Central. The Cardinals, because of two early-season losses, have dropped below the radar but remain dangerous. The Titans’ run is probably up here, but they’ve been proving people wrong ever since the CCIW portion of the schedule started, so why not once more?
Pat’s take: Olivet. The Comets started off 0-3 but against some decent competition: Illinois Wesleyan, Wittenberg and Elmhurst, a combined 16-8. Olivet is 4-1 in the MIAA and plays at Hope (5-3, 5-0) with title hopes on the line.

Will any of the nine teams that have a chance to clinch an automatic bid Saturday fail to do so?
Ryan’s take: Muhlenberg. The Mules have a seven-game winning streak over the Ursinus Bears but there have been some close shaves over that stretch. Both teams’ defenses have been stingy over the season so I see another nip and tuck game with the Bears getting their first win of the decade on the Mules.
Keith’s take: No. I feel fairly confident in all nine teams, from top-10 UW-Whitewater and Mary Hardin-Baylor to off-the-radar Hope and N.C. Wesleyan.
Pat’s take: Well, I’ve already mentioned Hope and Muhlenberg above, so if I were to spotlight someone new, I’d go with Concordia (Wis.). The Falcons’ loss at Greenville was a surprise, at least in terms of the margin of defeat (44-14). Benedictine is coming in strong, with four wins in a row, and if you’re a slave to the common opponents results, Benedictine won at Greenville on Oct. 6.

Which key Pool B game will be more exciting, Whitworth at Linfield or Wash. U. at Case Western Reserve?
Ryan’s take: No contest? Linfield at Whitworth. I’m not even sure how you could justify going the other way on that question. No offense to the UAA but play out in the NWC is just better.
Keith’s take: The big UAA clash lost a bit of its luster when Wash U. lost to Carnegie Mellon last weekend, but the Bears can still spoil the Spartans’ undefeated run and the conference’s chance at a playoff spot. The game in McMinnville, Ore., will be more exciting, because with a 3:30 kickoff Eastern Time, the result of the noon game in Cleveland should be in. Should Wash U. pull the upset, the Wildcats and Pirates will likely be playing for playoff position as well as the NWC title.
Pat’s take: Wash U. at Case Western Reserve, Ryan, because I can watch it for free online and Linfield charges at least an arm, if not an arm and a foot, for video of its games. What, the game’s at Whitworth, not at Linfield? Well, there goes that point. Seriously, both should be good, just in different ways.

Which New York team will help itself most?
Ryan’s take: Union helps out its cause by eliminating Hobart from title contention and set up the home game for all the marbles with RPI the final week of the season. That’s how Union rolls.
Keith’s take: An inside joke. Nice. I’m going to slide over the Empire 8 and say that Alfred rebounds from the Hobart thumping and barely gets past Ithaca to remain undefeated in-conference while a Week 11 showdown with St. John Fisher awaits.
Pat’s take: SUNY-Maritime, which is riding – or being ridden by – a seven-game losing streak heading into its season finale at Gallaudet. Maritime hasn’t won since Sept. 8 and can avenge a loss to the club Bison from 2006.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some you may recognize, some we just made up last night. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

This week’s guest is Jason Bowen, who covered the ACFC for D3football.com’s Kickoff 2007 and has a lot of experience with the four Top 10 teams squaring off this week: UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Salisbury and Wesley.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day, especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Game of the Week
Pat’s take: Principia vs. Trinity Bible at the Metrodome. This will be over before this blog gets posted, most likely, since it starts at 9 a.m. ET, but this game literally makes the season for someone. Trinity Bible is 0-8 and not a Division III member, while Principia is 1-7, came into the season ranked last in our Kickoff ranking of all Division III teams. Principia’s only win is against Trinity Bible. In fact, Principia’s only wins in its past 24 games are against Trinity Bible. You get the picture. This is their championship game, even if it’s for ninth place in the Upper Midwest Athletic Conference.

Keith’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 3 UW-Whitewater. How kind of you, Pat. I, however, can’t look past a pair of top-three teams in a non-conference game this late in the season, with the nation’s top rushing attack taking on perhaps the best rusher. The winner here becomes my favorite to appear in the Stagg Bowl against Mount Union, although I fully recognize that someone else might have a remarkable postseason run in them, or that injuries could change things.

Jason’s Take: No. 9 Salisbury at No. 10 Wesley. No game this week has bigger ramifications for Pool B and possibly Pool C playoff bids than this one. Salisbury can virtually wrap up a bid and the ACFC championship with a win in this one. For Wesley, this game is a must win, since a second regional loss leaves the Wolverines on the bubble. Having watched every game in the series since 1993, the stakes have never been higher. Wesley has defended Salisbury’s option run-game, which ranks second nationally this season, well over the past five seasons. If the Wolverines tackle well, the Sea Gulls are going to have to make some plays down the field in the pass game to keep rolling up the points. Salisbury ’s pass game, when they use it, has been very efficient (just one interception and six touchdowns in 71 attempts) this season. Gull backup quarterback Bobby Sheahin, a Maryland transfer, could play a big factor if Salisbury gets down early. After turning the ball over 16 times in the first four games, the Wesley offense has given it up just four times in their last four. Wesley’s run game is probably better than it was during the past two seasons ,when they advance to the semifinals, behind a rapidly improving offensive line and Mike Pennewell. Quarterback Jason Schatz continues to mature and is managing games well and making big plays more down the field to burners Larry Beavers and Michael Clarke. Salisbury’s 3-5-3 defense gave the Wolverine offensive some problems last year, holding them to a regular season low 13 points. Rain is in the forecast in Dover, so turnovers could tip the scales in this one.

Surprisingly close game
Pat’s take: Wilkes at King’s. Sure, Wilkes was in the MAC title hunt six days ago, and King’s is winless, but King’s can’t stay winless forever, right? Right? The Monarchs have been on the doorstep the past three weeks and will break through against their crosstown rivals.

Keith’s take: Loras at Dubuque. I took a crosstown rivalry too, and not because Pat and I misunderstood “surprisingly close.” The Spartans, after losing to Central last week in three overtimes, losing IIAC championship and playoff hopes in the process, could come out flat before putting up the winning score late.

Jason’s Take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 12 Capital. Nobody has seen the Purple Raiders more in the past couple of seasons than the Crusaders, who have been dropped by their OAC rival four times during the past two seasons. The regular season games have been blow outs, but the Crusaders have lost by just three in both playoff losses. After a tough loss to Otterbein last week, Maybe Capital bounces back when least expected.

Most likely Top 25 team to get upset
Pat’s take: No. 11 Alfred. This shouldn’t be taken as a huge knock on Alfred. Hobart just seems to be firing on all cylinders this month. They’ve scored 41 or more the past four games — against admittedly lesser competition, but at least they have seen the north side of 40 before, which they may well need against Alfred’s 42.7 points per game.

Keith’s take: No. 14 Occidental. The Tigers like to flirt with disaster a couple times a season on the way to the playoffs, and one of these days that habit might bite them. They’ve already done it this year, blocking a PAT with 4:38 left to hold off Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (now 1-5) and they trailed Pomona-Pitzer (2-4) at halftime last week. Cal Lutheran’s shown signs of getting it together, so maybe this is the week. And if it isn’t, well heck, three-fifths of the top 25 are playing ranked opponents or someone against whom a loss might not be considered an upset, so there wasn’t much to choose from.

Jason’s take: No. 20 Muhlenberg vs. Dickinson. The Mules have been impressive on defense this season posting four shutouts and seven straight wins, but this is the time things usually get crazy in the Centennial Conference. Dickinson (6-1) is well-coached fundamental football team with some playmakers back from last year’s playoff team with their only loss coming to Hopkins by three.

They’ll be on your radar
Pat’s take: Dickinson. This gets harder and harder each week — I mean, shoot, how can a team get onto the radar in Week 9? By winning at an undefeated team’s home field, I’m guessing. Dickinson’s performance last year in the playoffs — even in a 49-21 loss at Wesley — was the Centennial’s best NCAA playoff performance since 2003, when Muhlenberg scored 20 points at Christoper Newport, then a third-year program.

Keith’s take: Washington U. The Bears control their playoff destiny and are a major factor in Pool B, but with a showdown against unbeaten Case Western Reserve looming next weekend, they’d better not get caught looking ahead. Carnegie Mellon, 11-1 and UAA champ last season, won’t go down easily. Three of their four losses are by three points or fewer, and they shut out Chicago on the road in their UAA opener last weekend. Given that Wash. U. has three road games to get them to 9-1 and into the postseason (most likely), I’ll be watching how they start the stretch run.

Jason’s take: The winner of the Delaware Valley/Widener game. Both teams stumbled early, but have rebounded to post unbeaten records in the MAC. The winner will get a shot at the conference crown in the coming weeks against Albright.

Total rushing yards and score in the UMHB/UWW game
Pat’s take: 580 and 31. There’s lots of focus on last year’s performance by the UWW defensive line but not a lot of attention paid to the fact that UMHB returns every offensive lineman from that game’s two-deep while the Warhawks’ defensive front lost three of its four starters, including the D3football.com Defensive Player of the Year, Ryan Kleppe. UMHB will be able to get its yards, about 360 of them, while UWW will garner the other 220. And 14 of the points.

Keith’s take: 500 and 45. I can’t expect defenses of this caliber to each give up 300 yards rushing, so I aimed a little lower than Pat. The focus here will clearly be on the rushing offenses, but I don’t see a defensive battle like last season. If Josh Welch or Danny Jones can make plays for his team in the passing game, we could see one or the other open up the scoring. 45 points could come in many forms. I doubt we’ll see 42-3, but 31-14 is just as possible as 24-21.

Jason’s Take: 400 and 38. I’ll have to credit two good defenses in holding down the rushing totals a bit here. Justin Beaver will get his yards and so will Thrasher and Daniels. I have to agree with Keith that the key will be big plays in the passing game. UMHB’s defense will attack, attack, attack, like no other. The Warhawks will have to attack right back. The pressure is on Danny Jones. He will have to stand up against the pressure and get the ball down field to Neil Mrkvicka on the post off of play action like Wesley did the last couple years with Chris Warrick. I understand the Crusaders have a big receiver at 6-foot-7 now, but I still think they are in trouble if they have to play catch up with that run, run, run offense. I like the balance in the Whitewater offense and the fact that the are at home. Should be a great game.

Least interesting game between Top 25 teams
Pat’s take: No. 1 Mount Union at No. 12 Capital. I just don’t see it being anything other than a blowout. Hard to believe otherwise.

Keith’s take: No. 25 Cortland State at No. 18 TCNJ. Not because it won’t be close, but because these two teams might settle for a grind, and unless you appreciate the finer points of defense or a field-position game, ‘least interesting’ might end up describing the 13-9 slugfest it becomes.

Jason’s take: No. 19 Trinity at No. 24 Millsaps. Just because I had to pick one. I haven’t seen Trinity play since the late 90’s at Lycoming and I don’t know that much about Millsaps except that they got beat by three touchdowns by Carnegie Melon in last year’s first round. Both probably won’t fair well in a first round match against Mary Hardin-Baylor in the playoffs.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

This week’s guest is back to the top of the rotation, as Gordon Mann, D3sports.com’s deputy managing editor, rejoins us.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day, especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Game of the week
Gordon’s take: Last week we had “de facto championship games,” but this week we have a team who can actually clinch a playoff spot when St. Norbert hosts Ripon. If the Green Knights win, they are MWC champions and the first team officially into the 2007 playoffs. A Red Hawks’ victory wouldn’t be quite as definitive but it would give them first place with games against Grinnell (2-5) and Lawrence (2-4) remaining. If last year’s game was any indication, this also has the potential to be a very entertaining game. In 2006 the teams had a see-saw battle swing in favor of St. Norbert when Zach Behnke returned a blocked punt to give the Green Knights the lead for good.

Keith’s take: Pacific Lutheran (5-1) at Linfield (3-2). It’s among a handful of games Saturday with conference title and playoff implications. I like this game best because of the rivalry that’s developed between the two recent national champions (Lutes, 1999; Wildcats, 2004) and the fact that the “Catdome” should be rocking for this one. Northwest Conference teams are behind the 8-ball in the Pool B picture, so the loser here is virtually eliminated from playoff contention.

Pat’s take: Bridgewater (5-1, 1-1) at Emory and Henry (4-2, 1-1). What could be better than a league’s old guard and new guard playing for their playoff lives in front of an unbelievable number of fans? Emory and Henry lost at Randolph-Macon last week but faces Washington and Lee, Catholic and Guilford to close the season. If the Wasps can get by this game, they still have a shot at the automatic bid. Bridgewater just held Guilford 23 points below its season average, but then again, Emory and Henry doesn’t pass nearly as often.

Surprisingly close
Gordon’s take: No. 7 Central at Dubuque is interesting, but we can’t be surprised when the Dutch play a close game. So I’ll go with the Rhine River Cup battle where No. 5 Capital travels to Otterbein. This has all the makings of a trap game – rivalry game, favored team on the road with a huge match-up next week, injury plagued-offense. Capital is 27-5 since the beginning of the 2005 season, with four losses to Mount Union and one to Otterbein. Maybe quarterback Wade Bartholomew has a bit of a let down coming off last week’s three touchdown showing against Ohio Northern. Maybe the Cardinals keep it close early and gain confidence as the game goes on. That doesn’t mean the Crusaders won’t win. But I don’t think they do so by more than two scores against a .500 team.

Keith’s take: Mt. St. Joseph at Manchester. When your season points toward one game, as the Lions’ has, and you lose it, a hangover is difficult to avoid. The 3-3 Spartans are in the midst of a good season, but this is a game 5-1 Mt. St. Joseph shouldn’t lose. They won’t, but it might take a few quarters to realize this is an opportunity to get back on track and stay near the top of the conference in case Franklin stumbles rather than a meaningless game.

Pat’s take: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor at Mississippi College. Admittedly, the Choctaws have given up a fair amount of points to the good offenses they’ve seen, and the Crusaders have more than just a good offense. And yes, Mary Hardin-Baylor has won 18 consecutive American Southwest Conference games. And they only allowed 14 points to Hardin-Simmons, on the road, while MC allowed 45 at home. So before I talk myself out of it, yes, this is a game that might actually be worth the $8.95 to watch it on the Web. After you get done watching the Springfield/St. John Fisher game on D3Cast for free, of course.

Most likely Top 25 team to lose
Gordon’s take: No. 22 New Jersey has held every opponent to 15 points or less this year, but they’ll have their hands full with Western Connecticut. The Colonials are scoring 26.7 per game this year including showings with 44, 41, 27 and 26 points and running back Wayne Neal leads the NJAC in rushing yards per game. If Western Connecticut turns this into shoot-out can the Lions’ offense keep up?

Keith’s take: It’s hard to go against No. 8 St. John Fisher in a game that looked like it would be much bigger than it’s turned out to be, but Springfield is still dangerous, especially on its home turf. With the Pride and the Cardinals joining Hartwick a loss behind Alfred in the Empire 8 race, it’s do-or-die for both teams here. If the Pride, who played five of their first six on the road, have any, this could be a toss-up.

Pat’s take: St. Olaf. Maybe the Oles have slid a bit high, at No. 13, after the losses around them the past couple of weeks. Bethel is hardly reduced to playing spoiler at this point – after all, the Royals (Bethies?) are still unbeaten in the MIAC and host St. John’s at the end of the season. This league has three-way tie potential still – and by the way, that’s what we projected in Kickoff.

They’ll be on your radar
Gordon’s take: Albright, who has barely registered a blip on the national radar at 5-1. On one hand, the Lions haven’t beaten anyone with a record better than 2-4. On the other, they were unlikely to be in this situation after last year’s 2-8 performance. Sophomore quarterback Tanner Kelly seems like an All-American in the making (1,561 yards, 13 interceptions) after his stellar freshman campaign. But he and Albright will have the toughest test of this year against All-American in the present Kyle Follweiler and a Wilkes defense that is still very good.

Keith’s take: The IIAC top four. Finally some clarity in one of the nation’s most muddled conference races. Central goes to Dubuque, after both teams beat Coe by a touchdown, while the Kohawks attempt to save face at Wartburg, who has already beaten Dubuque. We could emerge from Saturday with a three-way tie at the top of the conference, or we could emerge with a clear leader, with Central at Wartburg still looming Nov. 10. Montclair State at Cortland State is also worth watching for the help it’ll provide in figuring out the NJAC race.

Pat’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. The Titans face three serious tests in their final four games, though facing Elmhurst at home might be the least painful of the three. (The others: at North Central and home against Wheaton.) If they don’t win this game, it could be a painful downward spiral and a .500 finish, but a win, followed by a presumptive win at North Park, puts IWU at 6-2, 5-0 heading to Naperville on Nov. 3.

Smallest margin of victory — Mount Union, Mary Hardin-Baylor or UW-Whitewater?
Gordon’s take: I picked Baldwin-Wallace as the team most likely to keep No. 1 Mount Union in check in the preseason but the Purple Juggernaut’s offense has me thinking otherwise now. Mississippi College gave up 42 and 34 to Hardin-Simmons and Louisiana College, both of whom got stomped by Mary Hardin-Baylor. So I guess that leaves me with the Warhawks for the smallest margin of victory.

Keith’s take: On paper, the nation’s three top-ranked teams face tough conference tests. Before giving up 62 points to Heidelberg and Muskingum the past two weeks, Baldwin-Wallace looked like a defensive juggernaut that might give Mount Union some trouble. Looking at the margins of victory for the three teams, using their average score (60-4 for MUC, 55-13 or UMHB and 30.5-14.5 for Whitewater) and the Warhawks are the only pick here, especially since they play No. 20 UW-Stevens Point.

Pat’s take: Mary Hardin-Baylor. UW-Stevens Point has had a great season so far but their three non-conference opponents (Webber International, Iowa Wesleyan and Waldorf) are a combined 3-18, and their three conference wins are each by three points against 2-4 teams. That game won’t be as close as the previous three UWSP conference games.

Playoff hopeful who sees its bubble burst
Gordon’s take: Springfield still has a faint chance at the postseason, despite its 3-3 record. But the combination of a Pride defense that’s giving up lots of points and a St. John Fisher offense that’s scoring them doesn’t bode well. They’ll join UW-La Crosse as a team ranked in the preseason Top 10 who will the playoffs. I also give No. 13 St. Olaf the edge at home in a game that would end Bethel’s chances at postseason return.

Keith’s take: Plymouth State. With the Panthers and NEFC heavyweight Curry each undefeated heading into Saturday’s game, the loser falls behind in the Boyd Division and will likely miss out on an invite to play Coast Guard in the NEFC title game. The winner of that game gets the NCAA bid, while no NEFC team has been an at-large selection.

Pat’s take: Wilkes. Despite being 2-4 overall, the Colonels are 2-1 in the MAC. It’s just not clear what kind of team is going to show up for Wilkes this weekend.

Winless team most likely to change fortune
Gordon’s take: King’s (0-6) had a nice comeback against Albright last week when third-string quarterback Blaine Fox gave the Monarchs a spark. Lebanon Valley (1-5) has to be pretty disappointed with how 2007 has shaped up, considering the Flying Dutchmen hoped to build on last year’s 6-4 finish with at least an ECAC appearance. King’s has been close to a W three times this year and I think they break through here.

Keith’s take: Hiram (0-6) goes to Denison (1-5) coming off an encouraging performance at Wooster, where the Terriers lost 24-17. I also like 0-6 Bluffton to get over the hump against Anderson (1-5) after a pair of 7-point road losses.

Pat’s take: Averett (0-6, 0-3 USA South). The Cougars travel to Greensboro (1-5, 0-3), who might be more fired up than they were in a 33-7 loss at Shenandoah. Regardless, it’s hard to believe Averett, even losing as much as it did from last year’s team, is still winless.

Keith McMillan and I and a guest each week run down the games to watch in several categories — some standard, some off the wall. But this is just the start of the conversation, as we open up the Daily Dose for your thoughts and comments.

Continue along with us here on the blog and on the message boards on game day (we’ll be in Chicagoland), especially if you can’t make it to a game yourself, and then we’ll be back Monday with our weekly podcast, wrapping up the previous weekend’s action.

Kevin LaForest, a former Brockport State broadcaster and occasional postseason live score tracker for us here at D3football.com, known as pg04 on the message boards, is our special guest analyst for this week.

Game of the Week
Keith’s take: Franklin at Mt. St. Joseph. We’ve never seen the Heartland earn two playoff bids, even after Franklin lost 21-14 to automatic qualifier and finished 9-1 last season. So if tradition holds, only one of these teams will make the field of 32, via the AQ. It’s basically a single-elimination playoff game, especially for the Grizzlies, who lost 35-33 at Wabash earlier this year. It could be more of the same from the Lions, a three-time reigning conference champ, or a historic day for the Grizzlies, who haven’t won a conference title since 1981 and have never made the playoffs.

Kevin’s take: No. 11 Ohio Northern at No. 7 Capital. This match-up is the only between two top 25 teams this week, and will probably decide which team gets what could be considered the automatic Pool C bid for the OAC runner-up. The Polar bears were crushed at home last weekend by Mount Union but can make that disappear with a victory this weekend. ONU quarterback Jeff Pankratz will need a better performance after going 13-for-31 for 133 yards last week, while the running game will attempt to get back on the plus side. The crusaders are coming in on an exact opposite feeling after crushing the Blue Streaks of John Carroll 37-13 last week. Their defense was monstrous getting nine sacks and by holding the Blue Streaks to negative yards rushing. The team (if either) that gets out to a quick start will have a great opportunity to win the game.

Pat’s take: Wittenberg at No. 14 Wabash. Wittenberg seems to desperately want to be a factor again in the North Region and has pounded Earlham and Wooster (combined 2-8) to the tune of 131-7. A 13-0 loss to Capital in Week 1 raised eyebrows at the time but seems more reasonable now given what Capital has done since. The Tigers haven’t won a postseason game since 2002, and that was against the Heartland Conference, 1-8 in the playoffs in the automatic bid era. Wabash settled on Matt Hudson at quarterback last week, though he threw for just 129 yards on 23 attempts at Allegheny. Should be a bitter battle.

Surprisingly close
Keith’s take: Concordia-Moorhead at St. Olaf; Hardin-Simmons at East Texas Baptist. The Oles have to get over the hangover from losing a one-point game at conference power St. John’s. If the Oles don’t make it happen right away, the Cobbers could lure them into a shootout: They’ve scored 34 or more in five of six games in their 4-2 season so far. Meanwhile, Hardin-Simmons must get past the idea of being out of the playoff picture and likely the ASC race for the first time in a decade. ETBU is in first place at 4-0, 4-2, but the 2-1, 2-3 Cowboys have the superior talent and should eke one out after they get on board with the idea of playing out the rest of the season as hard as possible. Teams that have taken beatings at their hands for years will be looking for payback if they don’t.

Kevin’s take: No. 3 UW-Whitewater vs. UW-Oshkosh. Well we all know how wild the wild, wild WIAC can be. It appears that any team in the top 4 of the conference has a legitimate shot of making a real run. Whitewater’s lone loss came to an out of division opponent, while Oshkosh lost, but only by 1, to UW-Eau Claire. Justin Beaver of the Warhawks, one of the best in Division III at the running back position, will certainly make it difficult at home. It’s also UW-W’s homecoming game. All this aside, Oshkosh has a fairly potent back of their own. Andy Moriarty has rushed for 10 touchdowns and 721 yards in 5 games this season and could give the Warhawks fits. In the end, though, Whitewater will probably extend their 17 game WIAC winning streak.

Pat’s take: Concordia (Wis.) at Concordia (Ill.). The homestanding Cougars already have more wins than in any season since D3football.com’s inception in 1999. While beating the Falcons is a long shot, this should be a tighter ballgame.

Most likely top 25 team to get upset
Keith’s take: No. 6 Central. Not that losing to visiting Coe would be a major stunner in Iowa. What’s stunning is how the banged-up Dutch keep getting it done. They were outgained for the fourth time this season last week but beat Simpson by a touchdown. Their scores aren’t of the typical dominant top 10 variety, but that’s Central’s m.o.; they aren’t simply playing down to the level of their competition. We wouldn’t have to worry about that with the Kohawks anyway, since they’re among the IIAC’s more talented teams, especially defensively, where they hadn’t allowed more than 10 points in a game until a 28-21 OT loss vs. Dubuque last week.

Kevin’s take: No. 5 Wheaton. Pat picked them last week, and I’m going to pick them again this week. They kind of feel like Wisconsin did last week in the No. 5 position of the Football Bowl Subdivision (or I-A to normal people). Wheaton was able to squeak by the challenge of North Central last week after being down 17-0 at the half. Though they do have being at home on their side, Augustana challenged Illinois Wesleyan to a 22-19 loss on the road. If Augustana can keep it close and withstand the first half homecoming charge, I believe they’ll have a good shot at pulling the upset and making a mess of the CCIW. Also, not many other Top 25 teams are actually playing unranked teams that threaten them in the manner that I feel Augustana does to the Thunder.

Pat’s take: No. 22 UW-Stevens Point. Maybe taking a WIAC team to pull an upset is like picking the low-hanging fruit, but those three NAIA opponents the Pointers started the season with are a combined 3-16, and one of those wins came when two of the opponents faced off. UW-Stout is “just” 2-3, but the Blue Devils’ game at Whitworth was a bigger challenge than anything UW-Stevens Point has seen to date.

They’ll be on your radar
Keith’s take: Illinois Wesleyan. Pat and I will be in CCIW country this weekend and will see four of the conference’s top teams. The Titans aren’t among them, but they are among the conference leaders at 3-2, 2-0 (the non-conference losses were to Coe and MSJ). With wins over Augustana and Carthage already, and Wheaton — the only other team unbeaten in CCIW play — not on the schedule until Nov. 10, the Titans, 3-7 the past three seasons, could make an interesting run, starting Saturday against Millikin.

Kevin’s take: Rowan. Ah-ha. Finally time to mention an eastern team. Perennial eastern powerhouse Rowan is smarting after a disappointing 10-7 conference loss in which their opponent, The College of New Jersey, didn’t score an offensive touchdown. This week, they take on the Buffalo State Bengals in an important NJAC tilt. Rowan is currently 3-2 (1-1 in NJAC) with close losses to Christopher Newport and the previously mentioned TCNJ Lions. However, their wins over Western Connecticut, Wilkes, and Widener have been fairly impressive. The Profs must get back on the winning track if they want any chance at winning the conference and getting into the playoffs to once again become “beasts of the east.” As it is right now, they are essentially 2 games behind TCNJ due to last week’s loss. The question is: Will they fold up, or will the young team show some heart and play out the rest of the season hard?

Pat’s take: Case Western Reserve. At 5-0 but untested, the Spartans have a shot at leaving Carnegie Mellon on the ropes for even an ECAC postseason game. After winning their first 11 games last year, the Tartans are currently 2-3. For Case, this is one of only two chances to impress the playoff committee all season. (They host Wash U in Week 10.) Case’s opponents so far: Oberlin, Denison, Kenyon, Wooster and Gallaudet.

Which conference race will clear up the most?
Keith’s take: The ODAC, but only because it eventually has to. All seven conference teams have at least two more overall wins than losses, and six go head-to-head Saturday, led by Randolph-Macon (2-0, 5-1) hosting Emory and Henry (1-0, 4-1). It’s just like old times for the Yellow Jackets and Wasps, who used to battle for the conference title yearly in the 90s. It’s also the middle of a four-game homestretch for R-MC. One of those two teams will be the last undefeated in ODAC play after Saturday, while four teams who might have more talent than either of them will battle to keep pace. Washington and Lee, 1-1, 3-1 and the defending conference champ, heads to 2-1, 4-2 Hampden-Sydney, while Guilford and Bridgewater meet in Virginia with identical 0-1, 4-1 records.

Kevin’s take: The NCAC. The conference championship is for all intents and purposes up for grabs as Wabash (5-0) and Wittenberg (4-1) go at it Little Giant Stadium in Crawfordsville, Indiana. Both teams are undefeated in the conference and while Oberlin is also undefeated, they will probably not end up being a serious threat. None of the one-loss teams seem poised to make a run either. Should be a pretty fun game between the two teams.

Pat’s take: The CCIW. With four of the top five teams in the league standings facing each other (Augustana at Wheaton, North Central at Elmhurst), some things should begin to take shape. At the very least, Keith and I will get a clearer picture since we’ll be at both games. Surprising Illinois Wesleyan faces Millikin, which has its win against North Park but not much else.

Which non-Division III team is most likely to win this weekend, Trinity Bible at Principia, Faulkner at Huntingdon, or Southern Virginia at Frostburg State?
Keith’s take: I don’t particularly like any of the non-D3s’ chances this week, especially given that Trinity Bible beat Principia twice last year in overtime. The 0-6 Panthers’ misfortune against its most beatable opponent can’t continue … can it?

Kevin’s take: Southern Virginia. Isn’t Trinity Bible the team that lost by 105 points? Otherwise, I think both Faulkner and Southern Virginia will win. However, Southern Virginia is the team that is most likely to win as Frostburg State has not be able to do anything on offense, and has not been able to stop anyone on defense. The Bobcats’ troubles don’t end this week.

Pat’s take: I can’t take Southern Oregon over struggling Linfield, so I’m going with Southern Virginia as well.