Busy week ahead
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Maybe you’ve heard: No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor is in Whitewater, Wis., this weekend to see the third-ranked Warhawks. These two teams played last year with Whitewater winning 7-3. The Warhawks ran back the opening kickoff for a score and that was all she wrote, as my old man used to say. I think calling that one a defensive struggle would be a touch of an understatement. There were 300 combined yards of offense. Only 79 of those came on the ground. The teams combined to go 5-for-25 on 3rd down. There were 16 punts in the game. You get the picture.
Things are probably a little different this year. Whitewater head coach Bob Berezowitz is gone. The new man is former Whitewater quarterback and Division II defensive coordinator Lance Leipold. Whitewater running back Justin Beaver did not play in last year’s contest. He’ll be there on Saturday. That’s not all that has changed. UMHB is running the football in a much more dominant manner than they did at this time in 2006. I’m just operating on a hunch here, but something tells me that they may run for more than 49 yards in this year’s game.
While both of these defenses are excellent, both giving up around 15 points per game, I don’t exactly forsee another 7-3 contest. Even though Mary Hardin-Baylor is the fourth best rushing defense in the nation, Beaver is on almost everybody’s short list of the premiere backs in the country. Jarvis Thrasher certainly proved his explosiveness last week, galloping for approximately 27 yards per carry against the Choctaws. Leipold unsurprisingly said that stopping them on the ground is the key to beating them.
“They’re so well schemed. They run everything so well. They run a great power play with a pulling guard. The draw stuff they run is very good, and they even run good play action off of everything,” admitted Leipold. “We’ve got to make them one dimensional. That’s one of our keys to every opponent that we play. Obviously, we want that to be the one they’re not as good at, so we hope to make them pass. That’s just something they haven’t done a lot of.”
I suppose that all makes sense, doesn’t it? The Crusaders have only thrown 107 passes through seven games. If you force them throw it all over Southeast Wisconsin, you are taking them out of their element. However, that may not be not the easiest task to complete. I would hazard a guess that just about everybody else who has seen them this season has tried that and it didn’t work.
Now this is an important game for both teams. Yet, it may not as important as you may think. Both teams will still win their conferences barring an upset. Both teams would still go to the playoffs. Sure, we’re talking about whether or not UMHB can win the No. 1 seed in the South. There’s a home in the round of 8 to talk about, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I think that a monumental regular season non-conference matchup can tell us a lot, but the result doesn’t necessarily mean that much. Leipold agreed.
“I think it sends a mixed message,” he conceded. “You want your team to focus on the game at hand, but your No. 1 priority is to win the conference. This isn’t a conference game. This game may have implications down the road as far as playoffs are concerned, but obviously we’re just focused on this football game. Our goal all along has been to win the conference.”
I think that’s a fairly important thing to keep in mind. Maybe (not definitely) it shows us something about where both teams stand (particularly in comparison to the Purple Raiders of Mount Union), but it doesn’t change much about their current situation. They’re still going to the playoffs.
I reckon we’ve reached the point in this section of the column where I have to take a stand. Truthfully, I like UMHB in this game. I would be concerned if the weather was going to be bad. They’re calling for mid 50s and maybe a shower.
Whitewater is a very good football team and a very good test for the Crusaders. But the UMHB offensive line is too big, too fast, too strong, and too well-coached to not succeed running the football. I cannot get over how strong they are offensively. I’ve been around football for the majority of my life on this planet, and I continue to be nothing short of awe-struck every week when I see how many more yards the Crusaders ran for than they did the week before. I’m of the opinion that unless somebody discovers some secret that they haven’t, it’s going to be mighty tough to keep that Crusader offense from putting drives together.
On that note, remember last week’s column? Remember how the Trinity/DePauw review was titled “SIX. HUNDRED. YARDS.”? You may not have known this, but Around the South is an environmentally friendly column. We recycle. So, without further delay…
SIX. HUNDRED. RUSHING YARDS.
We’ll keep this section a bit more brief than I usually would on any other week. Mary Hardin-Baylor ran for 613 yards in the 69-30 win against Mississippi College on Saturday. Now that sounds like a lot, and it is a lot. I don’t know if it makes sounds like more or less when I give you the following statistic courtesy of MC Sports Information: 543 of those yards came on seven runs. SEVEN. That averages out to just about 78 yards per carry on those particular runs. UMHB had six touchdowns runs of sixty yards or more: 61, 71, 81, 87, 89, 93 yard runs for scores. This was all against the fourth best rushing defense in the country. (cue jaw and floor).
Sounds like a slaughter doesn’t it? Well, sort of. But check this out: Mary Hardin-Baylor ran 41 other plays and gained just 107 yards on those plays. That’s an interesting note, if nothing else. I don’t know if tells us anything. Maybe the Choctaws halfway figured something out. Maybe they didn’t. I honestly don’t know what that split tells us. We’ll certainly see exactly how good that Crusader ground game is this weekend in Whitewater. Except this time I mean it. I keep saying that, and then I say it again the next week.
SCAC fans, this one is for a large percentage of the available marbles
Trinity and Millsaps. It’s fairly likely we are going to decide who will win the SCAC’s Automatic Qualifier this weekend. The winner of this game certainly has a leg up on it. If Millsaps wins, they would clinch. They’d go to 6-0 with Colorado College and Birmingham-Southern left. BSU doesn’t count as a conference game, so neither Rhodes nor Trinity could catch them.
Now, if Trinity were to win, things would get interesting. If Trinity wins, and Millsaps and Rhodes both win the rest of their games, we’d have a three way tie on our hands. All three teams would finish 7-1. What happens there? Well, the SCAC tiebreaker is a bit complicated, but the gist of it is this: None of the first few tiebreaks get us anywhere, so we come to fewest overall losses. In our hypothetical, Trinity would win out to finish 9-1, while Millsaps and Rhodes would both win out to finish 8-2. Trinity wins the automatic qualifier. This would be the situation where the circumstances of Millsaps’ loss to Mississippi College would come back to haunt them. In summation, let me plot the tiebreaks out in list form you. Here’s how each team can advance to the playoffs via the SCAC’s automatic qualifier (excluding finishing alone atop the standings, of course):
Millsaps wins the AQ if:
A) They beat Trinity on Saturday
B) They lose, but tie with only Rhodes
Trinity wins the AQ if:
A) They beat Millsaps and tie with only Millsaps
B) They beat Millsaps and tie with Millsaps AND Rhodes
Rhodes wins the AQ if:
A) They tie with only Trinity
The odds are fairly long for Rhodes. They have to hope for Millsaps to lose to Trinity this weekend and then loss to Colorado next weekend. Plus, they have to win out. For that reason, the winner of this weekend’s game is in the proverbial driver’s seat. On that note, let us talk about said game.
This game features the conference’s top two scoring offenses (MC 37.7 PPG - 21st nationally, TU 33.4 PPG – 47th nationally) matching up with the conference’s top two scoring defenses (MC 11.1 PPG – 9th nationally, TU 14.1 PPG – 32nd nationally). I could go on and on about this numbers for the pass and the pass defense, rush defense, etc. Trust me when I say they are all fairly close. These are two fairly matched teams. I am in the unique position of having seen both of these teams this season. I saw both Juan Joseph and Blake Barmore go crazy on the DePauw defense in the second half of each respective game. They are both truly remarkable quarterbacks. Both defenses are good and both offenses are electric.
An important factor in last year’s 34-12 win by Millsaps was that Barmore did not play. He missed with an injury and Jacob Cannon got intercepted four times. Millsaps also ran back two punts for touchdowns. Trinity coach Steve Mohr says his players have not forgotten last year’s result.
“They know what to expect. We turned it over five times and had two punts returned. You’re not going to win football games like that. We asked them to remember it and I think they have.”
Due to the change in schedule because the conference added two teams, this game is being played in Jackson for the second straight season. Coach, how’s that make you feel?
“Not real excited, especially for homecoming. It’s the best atmosphere in the conference. It’s a different atmosphere than we see anywhere else,” he said.
One other factor about this game being played in Jackson is that the speedy Millsaps offense is on field turf.
“I think they are faster on that turf,” admitted Mohr. “We’ve been hot and cold on turf. I’m not sure it hurts or helps. Millsaps is the fastest team I’ve seen all year. They just seem especially quick on turf.”
Part of the reason Millsaps is so effective on the turf is because of Joseph. This is a secret, so keep it yourself, please. Here’s Mohr’s plan to keep him off the field:
“Maybe buy him a cup of coffee. Take him to the concession stand,” he joked. “Seriously, he’s going to get his yards and find the open guys. He reads coverages and reads blitzes so well. They’ve been scoring in bunches. We’re just trying to look at slowing him down. The only way is to keep him off the field. We have to stay on the field as long as possible. I’m sure that’s what everybody else has tried to do, too. We have to hope he doesn’t get into a rhythm.”
I think a lot of people expect this game to be a barn-burner. These are two great quarterbacks leading two great offenses into battle. That said, please do not forget that both defenses are pretty solid, as well.
“Everybody’s expecting a shootout, but it’s whoever plays the best defense that usually wins the championship,” Mohr said. “It’s been that way for years and years and I don’t think it’s going to change. It’s the old adage that offense sells tickets and defense wins conference championships.”
So what do I think? Excellent question. Glad you asked. I don’t know what I think. These two teams are so similar. It’s hard telling. I think last year’s game was not an accurate representation of the way Trinity plays. If they didn’t turn it over and Millsaps just flat beat them instead, I’d feel more confident about picking the Majors.
I like to look at turnovers and penalties in a game like this. Trinity gave it away 5 times against Millsaps last year and 5 times against Rhodes, which is probably the best defense they’ve seen to this point. Millsaps has committed the most penalties per game of any team in the conference. Those are just a few numbers to think about.
I’m not going to make a pick here. If I did, that would only make people angry. I’m not in the business of making people angry. I do not think this game will get into the thirties. I get the feeling that 21 might win it, particularly if Trinity can have some success running the football. (Note: That’s easier said than done, as Millsaps is the 18th best team in the nation in rushing defense.)
So the stage is set for this weekend. Each conference has a huge game on the schedule. It should be a fun one, if nothing else.
Games worthy of the extra Live Stat/Video/Audio Feed
Yes, I know you’ll be paying attention to either UMHB/UWW or Trinity/Millsaps depending on your conference allegiance. However, while you are doing that, don’t forget about these!
12:00 p.m. CT: Austin at DePauw – This game doesn’t mean much in the long run, but I think it should be a good one. It will be a fun game to watch if you’re a fan of lining up and knocking each other’s teeth out with the ground game, which I am. Since my real life job requires weekend work, I’ll be at this one since it’s the closest in proximity. I’d like to be in Jackson or Whitewater, but I just can’t get out of the state.
1:00 p.m. CT: Mississippi at East Texas Baptist – Another one that doesn’t have much say in the playoffs, but still features two pretty gosh darn good football teams. A lot of people think we learned something about MC’s defense last week. Maybe we did, but ETBU is having some trouble scoring the football at 21 points per game. They’re going to have to shut down Shaffer and the Choctaw O or else.
1 p.m. CT: Hardin-Simmons at Sul Ross State – Who had these two teams tied at 3-2 in the conference in the preseason poll? Not me. Probably not many Hardin-Simmons fans, either. I think this might be another good football game.
1:30 p.m. CT: Rhodes at Centre – Playoff implications here. Rhodes needs it. It’s just that simple.
Best of the Week
Good week running the football for a couple of teams last week. This week’s winner is UMHB running back Jarvis Thrasher. Your prize is a trip to Wisconsin in late October. Congratulations! Thrasher had 324 rushing yards on Saturday. That’s an ASC record. That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? I bet it sounds even better when I tell you that he did it on 12 carries. Do me a favor. Just stop and think about that for a second. That’s 27 yards per carry. By the way, four of his twelve carries were touchdowns. In the SCAC, DePauw’s Jeremiah Marks set a school record with 211 rushing yards and tied his own record with 5 TD’s in DePauw’s 41-40 double overtime winner at Colorado College.
Quickly, one note defensively, Hardin-Simmons' Eric Daniels went for 16 tackles with a sack, and two tackles for losses.
My ATR Top 5
Seems like this gets harder every week.
1. No. 2 UMHB (7-0, 6-0) at No. 3 UW-Whitewater
2. No. 24 Millsaps (6-1, 5-0) vs. No. 19 Trinity
3. No. 19 Trinity (6-1, 3-1) at No. 24 Millsaps
4. Everybody else
I get really confused when I write this part of the column. I said two weeks ago that I didn’t like to think of this portion as rocket science. It’s becoming exponentially more difficult to not stare at this portion of my column with an expressionless look on my face for at least 45 minutes. It’s a mess after those three teams, which I saw no reason to change from last week.
I could put Rhodes at No. 4, but I think Mississippi College and even Hardin-Simmons could play them close, if not beat them. I could put Mississippi College at No. 5 behind Rhodes, but they just gave up 600 rushing yards. I could put the Choctaws at four again, but I’m not sure that’s fair while ETBU and Rhodes were winning last week.
I could put East Texas Baptist there for now, but they’ve still got Mississippi and UMHB left on the schedule. They’re going be at least a four loss team before it’s all done. Any stay the Tigers would make in the poll would be a fairly short one.
I’m not putting 3-4 Hardin-Simmons there. I was still on board with that group until they lost this weekend. I got enough ugly e-mails about my Top 5 last week that I have just decided to play it safe this week. Nobody wins.
Medium for submitting response
Boy, did I make some folks angry last week. Yikes. My e-mail inbox got rung up big time. Now listen up. I know I’m not going to make 100% of the fans happy 100% of the time. That’s a fairly elementary concept when you write a column about 20 different teams. That’s especially true when the goal is to separate a few teams that are, for the most part, very similar on paper. I’m aware of that and I’m willing to accept that. I’m also willing to accept and criticism and disagreements about anything I place in this column.
My opinion is always willing to be changed if you prove to me that it needs to be. But, hey, let’s try to be professional about it. I understand you are passionate about your football team. And I understand what happens when you think your school isn’t getting the fairest of shakes. You’re angry. And that’s fine. Tell me you are angry. I’ll talk about it with you.
With that being said, I will not accept, under any circumstances, any response that is offensive or insulting. At this time, I’d like to make a note that it is my general policy to not read or respond to any e-mail, message board post or private message that is derogatory in nature. I do my very best to respond to every single e-mail and message that I receive from you folks. For the most part have been absolutely fantastic, even most of the ones that have an issue with something I’ve said.
Contact me at wes.anderson@d3football.com with feedback of any nature including, but not limited to: queries, suggestions, recommendations, compliments, criticisms (Take a stand on the Trinity/Millsaps game! What are ya, scared?), disagreements, conflicts, quarrels, sticking points, differences of opinion, incongruities, or factual inaccuracies.