A return to normalcy
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South Region Games of the Week
No. 9 Mary Hardin-Baylor (4-1, 3-1 ASC) at No. 3 Hardin-Simmons (6-0, 5-0): A game which already had a lot of meaning on the national stage took on even more when the Crusaders lost to Howard Payne in Week 6. The fallout is that the Crusaders really must win this game (and all that follow) to get an at-large selection to the playoffs. A loss here would make two for UMHB, and the Crusaders already have had the experience of sitting at home for the playoffs with one loss.
Based on recent play, Hardin-Simmons must be considered the favorite. The Cowboys have played very well at home, and quarterback Jordy Bernhard has picked up where the injured Jordan Neal left off in Week 2. Bernhard is completing two of every three passes, and is ranked 20th nationally in terms of passing efficiency (160.0). Quinton Jones (74 yards/game, four touchdowns), Brad Clark (70.2, two TDs) and Thurston Ashley (47.8, three TDs) anchor a rushing attack which averages over 225 yards per game. Twins Will and Rob Galusha lead a defensive unit that yields 325 yards per game.
Mary Hardin-Baylor, on the other hand, has struggled recently with slow starts, and that could be fatal on Saturday. Besides the loss to Howard Payne (3-3, 3-2 ASC), the Crusaders held a narrow 13-6 lead in the fourth quarter at Sul Ross State (2-4, 1-4) before scoring twice late to put the Lobos away. Sul Ross is improved, but not that much.
Coach Pete Fredenburg knows his team is not where it should be, stating “we … know that it doesn’t really mean much where we are ranked at this time. We have to be ready to play each week and we have our backs to the wall. We need to have great effort and continue to improve.”
One spot where the Crusaders might need improvement is at quarterback. Josh Welsh and Andy Padron have taken turns starting this year; the two have only combined for 673 yards passing and seven touchdowns in five games. Getting 130 yards passing per game is down 20% from last season and isn’t getting the job done at this level. P.J. Williams is the sole deep threat — his 377 yards receiving account for over more than half the team’s total. Justin Bryson (397 yards in five games) and Freddie Rollins (324 yards in four) are the featured backs in the Crusaders’ rushing attack. Bryson, Rollins, and Jarvis Thrasher (250 yards and an outstanding 8.6 yards/carry) each have four of the Crusaders’ 15 rushing touchdowns.
The Crusader defense has been stiff against the run (95 yards per game and only four touchdowns) but has been fairly porous against the pass, where opponents are average over 220 yards per game. The Crusaders are actually minus-2 in turnover margin.
Although there are still three games left in the season, a win on Saturday would go a long way towards clinching the ASC title for Hardin-Simmons. The Cowboys already own the tiebreaker against the only other team with one loss in conference play, East Texas Baptist. A win this week would give UMHB a second conference loss and allow Hardin-Simmons to lose a conference game without having to worry about losing the ASC’s playoff bid. A Crusader victory would keep UMHB’s pool C hopes alive, and leave Hardin-Simmons no further room for error.
One key statistic: The home team in this series has not won since 2002 — a trend the Cowboys hope to end. I’ll be there on Saturday and will file a game story from Abilene.
Centre (6-1, 2-1 SCAC) at No. 10 Trinity (5-0, 1-0): Meanwhile, down in San Antonio, tenth-ranked Trinity faces another stiff challenge when Centre comes to town. Despite the gaudy record, the Colonels have had an up-and-down year. The team dealt the ODAC’s Washington and Lee (5-1) its only loss of the season four weeks ago, but turned around the next week to lose at 2-4 Sewanee. A strong outing two weeks ago against Millsaps (a 38-10 win) was followed by a 17-13 squeaker last week against 1-6 Maryville of the USAC.
One of the keys for the Colonels will be continued strong play from Adam Blandford. The senior tailback had 221 yards to lead Centre past Maryville. Blandford leads the SCAC in all-purpose yardage, and his 695 net yards rushing trails only Rose-Hulman’s Charlie Key (701). He has also been named SCAC offensive player of the week twice. Junior quarterback Kevin Phelps completes about half of his passes, averaging more than 140 yards per game. Sophomore linebacker Matt Johnson leads the conference defensively, with 82 tackles (49 solo). Centre averages about 400 yards per game while allowing slightly less. As you might expect, Centre uses the pass to set up the run more than the other way around.
Trinity returns to play two weeks after a comeback victory against Huntingdon (5-1). Key for the Tigers will be whether or not junior Jacob Cannon, the conference’s passing efficiency leader, can return to action after suffering a concussion. If not, the Tigers will go with sophomore Blake Barmore, who completed seven of eight against the Hawks in his first significant collegiate action.
The Tigers, who of all things have evolved into a ball-control team, will likely try to establish the run with Jerrold Jones and Ray Valencia, who collectively average nearly 100 yards per game. Whomever ends up playing quarterback will likely focus on Robert Kelner and Anthony Hicks, who have accounted for over half the completions and yardage Trinity has gained through the air. Kelner leads the team with four touchdowns, an unusually low number for a team coached by Steve Mohr. The Black Flag defense holds opponents under 300 yards per game and has been especially tough against the run (85.8 yards). Teams have found the going easier through the air, where Trinity has given up more than 200 yards per game.
With one loss already in conference play, Centre cannot afford to lose to either Trinity or DePauw (4-1, 2-0) if it wants to win the SCAC title. Centre inducted its 1955 football team into the school’s Hall of Fame last week; if these Colonels can take a page from that team’s book, Centre could find itself in the thick of the conference race with a win on Saturday.
Other games to keep an eye on
Louisiana College (1-4, 1-3 ASC) at East Texas Baptist (4-2, 4-1): the Tigers, coming off last week’s beating courtesy of Hardin-Simmons, will need to fend off Wes Cooper and the Wildcats’ prolific offensive attack to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Wildcats have been in most of their games this season, and staged a 27-point fourth-quarter rally before falling just short at Texas Lutheran last weekend.
McMurry (4-2, 3-2 ASC) at Sul Ross (2-4, 1-4): Alpine’s a hard place to play, and Sul Ross has improved considerably this year. McMurry has too. The Lobos gave Mary Hardin-Baylor a game last week and could stay close to the Indians.
Elsewhere around the Region …
Rhodes (1-5, 0-3 SCAC) almost knocked DePauw (4-1, 2-0) out of the SCAC playoff hunt, but the Tigers made their touchdown stand up in a 7-3 win. The game was a defensive struggle, as the teams combined for a measly 316 yards. The Lynx’s decision to keep kicker Hunter Tigert on the sideline on several failed fourthdown attempts deep in DePauw territory may have cost Rhodes its first conference win. DePauw’s touchdown came after the Lynx had appeared to stop the Tigers on fourth down, but a pass interference call gave DePauw new life, and the DPU defense made it stand up.
For the first time all season, McMurry (4-2, 3-2 ASC) faced a team with something besides a zero in the win column. A blocked two-point conversion sealed the Indians’ fate as they lost Homecoming ’05 to Howard Payne, 35-33. The sloppy game before 4,500 fans featured 12 turnovers. With the win, the Yellow Jackets improved to 3-3, 3-2 ASC.
The closest thing to an upset on Saturday came in Jackson, Miss., where surging Rose-Hulman (5-2, 2-1 SCAC) won its fourth straight road contest. I guess the “upset” comes from the fact that in previous years, RHIT simply didn’t win games like this. Engineer quarterback Cameron Hummel had a fine day, completing 14 of 28 passes for a career-high 260 yards and four touchdowns. He added 46 yards rushing as the Engineers stormed back from a 14-7 deficit to defeat Millsaps 35-21. Freshman quarterback Billy Bob Orsagh led the Majors (1-4, 0-2), completing 11 of 25 for 297 yards and two scores. Five Millsaps turnovers (to two by the Engineers) helped keep the Majors winless in conference play. The 5-2 start is Rose-Hulman’s best since 1995.
Huntingdon (5-1) kept its slim Pool B hopes alive with a 56-21 thrashing of Colorado College (1-5). Quarterback Zach Golson threw for six touchdowns and 319 yards as the Hawks put up 554 yards of total offense. I’m still waiting for some voter out there to have the foresight to give these guys a vote in the D3football.com Top 25. I mean, c’mon, some people are still voting for Cortland State (4-2), who lost to 1-4 Buffalo State! Sheesh …
South Region Top Five
1. No. 3 Hardin-Simmons (6-0, 5-0 ASC)
2. No. 10 Trinity (5-0, 1-0 SCAC)
3. No. 9 Mary Hardin-Baylor (4-1, 3-1 ASC)
4. Huntingdon (5-1)
5. DePauw (4-1, 2-0 SCAC)
Honorable mention: Centre (6-1, 2-1 SCAC), East Texas Baptist (4-2, 4-1 vs. D-III, 4-1 ASC) Rose-Hulman (5-2, 2-1 SCAC)
I can’t rank a Mary Hardin-Baylor team that lost to 1-3 (at the time) HPU above Trinity … unless the Crusaders get past Hardin-Simmons this week. Huntingdon’s ascent to No. 4 reflects their narrow loss to Trinity and DePauw’s struggles to get past Rhodes last week.
It’s also interesting to note that it’s not impossible that we could see as many as five playoff bids in the “South” region. HSU and MHB/ETBU could get bids, two of Trinity/DePauw/Centre could get bids, and, if conditions break just right, so could Huntingdon. There’s a lot of football yet to be played, so we also could see as few as two bids!
Next week
I’m off to Abilene again for UMHB-HSU. It looks like ideal football weather and I’m hoping for another great game between these two fierce rivals. Thanks to the ASC for scheduling a 2 p.m. start — I won’t have to get up at 6AM to get there in time!
Questions, comments, and story ideas are always welcome: ron.boerger@d3football.com.