Reflecting on preseason expectations
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Huntingdon (3-4). Preseason playoff outlook: none.
After an 0-7 run in their initial campaign, and a new coach this season, few expected much of the Hawks in 2004. An overtime loss to Thomas More in week four that left Huntingdon 0-4 may actually have been the turning point in a surprising second season. Since then, the Hawks have rattled off three victories in a row including a road win at Colorado College and another against first-year North Carolina Wesleyan. Even if the Hawks don’t win another game this season, 2004 rates a success for first year coach Mike Turk.
Rating: Greatly exceeds expectations.
Maryville, Tenn. (3-3). Preseason outlook: none. Coach Tony Ierulli’s team has been surprisingly strong this year, at least until last week’s 22-0 loss to Frostburg State. The Scots’ other two losses came in overtime (at Averett) and by a field goal to 5-2 Rhodes. With home games remaining against Newport News and Huntingdon, it’s entirely possible that Ierulli will lead the squad to its first winning season since 1999. The Hawks should fit right into the USAC mix when they enter the conference in 2005.
Rating: Greatly exceeds expectations
Austin (3-4, 3-3 ASC). Preseason outlook: none. It’s been a mixed year for the Kangaroos, but they’ve already recorded as many victories this season as in the 2003. The highlight of the year so far has been a 15-11 win at preseason co-favorite East Texas Baptist. The squad almost avenged a 42-0 loss to Howard Payne last week, falling 24-23. Things are looking up in Sherman, but Austin closes the season with Hardin-Simmons and Mary Hardin-Baylor.
Rating: Exceeds expectations
East Texas Baptist (2-5, 2-4). Preseason outlook: co-favorite. The wheels have come off in Marshall, and nobody is really sure why. The team has struggled with offensive changes which have reduced the role of the running game, and certainly players like Greg Washington and Jabori Jackson are missed. The Tigers seem to have lost some of the confidence of years past, and in a conference as competitive as the ASC, that can be fatal.
Rating: fails to meet expectations
Hardin-Simmons (7-0, 6-0). Preseason outlook: co-favorite: HSU is averaging over 500 yards of offense per game and has outscored its opponents by a 342-111 margin, including last week’s demolition of then-No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor … on the road. Unless there are key injuries, the team should have a relatively easy path to the regional finals.
Rating: Greatly exceeds expectations
Howard Payne (5-2, 4-2). Preseason outlook: contender. Adam King has done his best, but there just isn’t enough of a supporting cast in Brownwood for HPU to keep up with the likes of HSU and Mary Hardin-Baylor. The Jackets barely got by both McMurry and Austin this year.
Rating: fails to meet expectations
Louisiana College (3-4, 2-4). Preseason outlook: none. While the Wildcats continue to perform in the shadow of better teams, they have shown some improvement this year. Had overtime losses the last two weeks been instead wins, the season would have been a qualified success for a squad that has never seen the .500 mark in five years of play.
Rating: meets expectations.
Mary Hardin-Baylor (6-1, 5-1). Preseason outlook: co-favorite. The Crusaders had everything rolling right along until last week’s debacle. The good news, if there is any, is that freshman quarterback Josh Welch threw the ball well enough last week to finally give UMHB a balanced offense. They still have a chance to get a Pool C bid but will need some help.
Rating: incomplete, pending playoff selection and performance.
McMurry (2-5, 1-5). Preseason outlook: contender. After two years of steady improvement, this was to be the year that McMurry finally started to give the other school in Abilene some competition. Sadly, that has not turned out to be the case. The Indians have seen other teams leap past them this season, and mistakes at inopportune times have led to losses that could have salvaged the season. A loss last week to Sul Ross State, which had not recorded an undisputed win in nearly three years, sends Steve Keenum and his Indians all the way back to square one. With games coming up against both conference leaders, things don’t appear to be getting better anytime soon.
Rating: fails to meet expectations
Mississippi College (1-6, 1-5). Preseason outlook: none. The Choctaw football program has been struggling for years, and 2004 is no exception. The team has suffered several close losses, but only a four-point win against Sul Ross in Week 2 separates MC from a winless season. We wonder why the football program suffers in comparison to the other successful athletic programs in Clinton. No doubt part of it is the difficulty in recruiting students in an area where there are so few D-III programs. There’s talk that MC considering a downgrade to Division II.
Rating: below expectations
Sul Ross (1-6, 1-5). Preseason outlook: none. When you have a team that has not truly won a game since 2001, and which lost its record-setting quarterback, expectations are low. Last week’s win against McMurry broke that non-winning streak. Rating: exceeds expectations
Texas Lutheran (5-2, 5-1). Preseason outlook: darkhorse. The Bulldogs were expected to step up play this year, and have they ever. Two single-digit losses against Top 10 teams to start the season are the only blemishes on TLU’s record. The team has shown a surprising ability to come back and win games late. Tom Mueller’s squad is still very young, boding well for the future.
Rating: exceeds expectations
We’ll take a look at the SCAC next week.
Playoff races come into focus
Last week’s game put the ASC into focus, and this week should do the same for the SCAC. Barring a huge upset, Hardin-Simmons has locked up the ASC’s Pool A bid. Their combination of national rating, quality win against a ranked opponent, and regional ranking should give them a leg up on a No. 1 seed in the playoffs. The only fly in that ointment could be Washington & Jefferson, who was ranked higher than the Cowboys in last week’s NCAA regional rankings. Mary Hardin-Baylor still has a chance at a Pool C bid, but it’s in doubt given the number of quality teams looking for one of the three available Pool C slots.
Over in the SCAC, this week’s match-up between Rhodes (5-2, 3-1 SCAC) and Trinity (6-1, 3-0) is the key to determining the conference’s Pool A representative. A Trinity win would basically give the Tigers a two-game lead over Rhodes with two weeks remaining. A Lynx win would throw the conference into a three-way tie, and a rather complicated tie-breaking procedure would apply if the season ended that way. But if Trinity beats Rhodes and Centre beats DePauw, Trinity clinches the automatic bid, up by two games with two to play and with head-to-head wins against both.
Games of the week
Rhodes at No. 10 Trinity, 12:30 p.m.: The SCAC’s two top-scoring teams meet as Trinity tries to avenge last year’s 23-20 loss. Rhodes features the conference’s best defense against the pass; Trinity, the best rushing defense.
No. 12 Mary Hardin-Baylor at East Texas Baptist, noon: The Crusaders can’t afford to take East Texas Baptist lightly. The Tigers kept it close for a half against Hardin-Simmons.
Texas Lutheran at Howard Payne, 1 p.m.: The trip to Brownwood will be a tough challenge for the Bulldogs, who need to win to keep their slight conference co-championship hopes alive.
McMurry at No. 3 Hardin-Simmons, 1 p.m.: It’s a big crosstown rivalry game. Though it’s hard to imagine the Indians causing the Cowboys much of a problem, curiously, McMurry has played well the last two times these teams have met at Hardin-Simmons. In 2000 a 6-4 McMurry team only lost to HSU’s national semifinalists 13-3, while in 2002 McMurry (1-9) lost to Hardin-Simmons (8-2) 14-6.