Coming down to the wire
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In the American Southwest Conference, two of the conference’s surprise teams stand between No. 3 Hardin-Simmons (8-0, 7-0 ASC) and their first date with the playoffs since the semifinal run of 2000. Austin (3-5, 3-4) is up this week, but the ’Roos seem to have faded after nearly defeating Howard Payne two weeks ago. Regardless of the outcome in Sherman, the Cowboys will likely face Texas Lutheran (6-2, 6-1) with the conference championship on the line. TLU will bring a strong offensive attack to that game, behind junior quarterback Sean Salinas and senior running back Kenny Gransberry. The Cowboys will counter with quarterback Jordan Neal, running back Lance Moore, and a stifling defense. But that’s for next week’s column.
In order to set up the showdown with Hardin-Simmons, Texas Lutheran will have to win this week’s game against Sul Ross State (2-6, 2-5). The Lobos have put it together with wins at McMurry and last week’s surprise over Austin. Sul Ross gained over 300 yards on the ground against Austin, so Texas Lutheran had better not be looking ahead to Week 11.
No. 8 Mary Hardin-Baylor (7-1, 6-1), meanwhile, can do little other than play out the rest of the season and hope for a Pool C bid. Games at McMurry and the regular season finale against Austin should serve as little more than scrimmages for the playoff bid they hope will come later this month.
The conference championship will go to Hardin-Simmons with two more victories. A win against Texas Lutheran will guarantee HSU the championship regardless of what might happen this week. If TLU upsets the Cowboys, it would set up a three-way tie. The conference’s AQ spot would then be determined by a random draw, assuming all three finish 7-1 in conference play. The possibility of a three-way tie seems remote, but since it happened last year, and since the conference has changed their tie-breaker rules, I’ve included it here for completeness’ sake.
Matters are simpler in the SCAC. Thanks to last week’s easy win over Rhodes, No. 6 Trinity (7-1, 4-0 SCAC) has a one-game lead plus the tiebreaker against DePauw (6-2, 4-1). The only way DePauw can claim the conference championship would be if the 11-time defending champions lose games to both Sewanee (2-7, 1-4) and Millsaps (3-4, 2-2).
Looking ahead: if HSU, UMHB, and Trinity win out, and with the large number of upsets among nationally-ranked teams last week, my best guess is that Mary Hardin-Baylor will receive a Pool C bid. Looking at the regional rankings and NCAA “Strength of Schedule Index” values, a short road trip to San Antonio to face Trinity in the first round would seem to be in order. Another factor in Trinity’s favor — an undefeated record against Division III opponents. Regardless of the location, the winner would travel next week to Abilene to face Hardin-Simmons, who should earn the first-round bye with two more wins.
Report cards
Finishing our review of how teams have performed versus expectations, looking this week at teams in the SCAC:
Centre (3-6, 1-6 SCAC). Preseason outlook: contender. The Colonels have been dreadful on the road (0-4), and have faltered recently at home with defeats at the hands of Trinity and DePauw. Quarterback Brian Behrendt and wide receiver David Crowley have had record-setting performances this year, but the running game sorely misses Lorenzo Englemann. The defense has not been good enough to sustain a team with a one-dimensional offense. Rating: fails to meet expectations.
DePauw (6-2, 4-1). Preseason outlook: dark horse. DePauw was taken apart by UW-Stout in Week 2, giving credence to early thoughts that Bill Lynch simply didn’t have the horses to build a competitive team in his first year. Two weeks later, the Tigers came within one fourth-down play of dethroning Trinity, who had to stage a heroic comeback to get back in the game. Since then, DePauw has handled its competition with ease; 2005 should be a very interesting year. Rating: Exceeds expectations (one play from “greatly exceeds.”)
Millsaps (3-4, 2-2). Preseason outlook: none. The Majors are usually somewhere in the bottom half of the SCAC, and that’s exactly where they are in 2004. Ending the season at Rhodes and home against Trinity aren’t likely to improve their standing. The two victories in conference play equal the combined wins of the previous two years. Rating: exceeds expectations.
Rhodes (5-3, 3-2). Preseason outlook: co-favorite. The Lynx lost unexpectedly to DePauw in week 1 and never quite recovered. Rhodes struggled past Maryville (Tenn.), needed overtime to defeat Rose-Hulman, and was manhandled by Trinity. This year was to be Rhodes’ best chance at a conference championship; with the loss of senior leaders like quarterback Daniel Swanstrom, cornerback/running back Rory Faver, and wide receiver Matt Dement, 2005 could be a long year. Rating: fails to meet expectations
Rose-Hulman (4-4, 1-3). Preseason outlook: contender. The Fightin’ Engineers stormed out to a 3-1 start, performed well in a loss at Trinity, took Rhodes to overtime, defeated a good Millsaps team … then lost to a Sewanee team that hadn’t won a conference game since 2002. Ted Karras is doing a good job, but youth at some positions – especially quarterback, where sophomore Cameron Hummel and first-year Aaron Gerhardstein split time — leads to inconsistency. Play should improve next year. Rating: below expectations
Trinity (6-1, 4-0). Preseason outlook: co-favorite. In San Antonio, they don’t start thinking about a season as successful or not until the playoffs begin. Quarterback Dan DesPlaines salvaged the season by directing two lightning-fast drives in the fourth quarter at DePauw. The defense has started to solidify late in the season, with rushing yardage being especially hard to come by. Too bad Steve Mohr’s Tigers will have to face a top-ten team in round one, and if they win will face another in round two. Rating: incomplete, pending playoff results
Sewanee (2-7, 1-4). Preseason outlook: none. Sewanee had no conference wins in 2003 or 2004 before last week’s homecoming victory. The defense is good enough to keep them in games; the offense, which averages 13 points per game, isn’t good enough to win them. Rating: meets expectations
Mail! We get mail!
A reader writes, “Please explain how [Mississippi College] going to Division II is a downgrade?”
OK: “We consider leaving the ranks of non-scholarship athletics a bad thing, and thus term such a move a ‘downgrade.’ This is a site to promote Division III football, after all.”
More interesting than either the question or the answer was the following, received after my reply, repeated verbatim above: “I KNOW WHAT THIS SITE IS FAR!!!!! (sic) NO REASON FOR YOU TO COME BACK WITH THAT KIND OF RESPONSE, AFTER ALL!!!!”
Huh? Would a smiley face have helped?
Around the region
The big showdown between Trinity and Rhodes turned instead to the big yawner, with the Tigers prevailing, 42-7. The Lynx were held to 46 yards rushing and Daniel Swanstrom was sacked six times. … Louisiana College won the “Best ASC Team outside of Texas” award with a 49-33 win over Mississippi College. Schuyler Anderson had seven catches for a school-record 234 yards, including three touchdowns. … Mary Hardin-Baylor outscored East Texas Baptist, 60-33, as Anthony Johnson had three interceptions. … Texas Lutheran remained in a tie for second place in the ASC, defeating Howard Payne 44-38. … DePauw’s Ross Weithoff had an outstanding day, leading the Tigers to an easy win at Millsaps 38-7. His quarterback rating: 277.38 (8-of-14, 240 yards, three touchdowns)
Games of the week
We’re really in a holding pattern; here are a couple of the best games:
Howard Payne (5-3, 4-3 ASC) at Louisiana College (4-4, 3-4), 1 pm: A win against Howard Payne, even as weakened as they are this year, would help the Wildcats emerge from the .500 doldrums they have found itself in the last several years. Wesley Cooper, the region’s best quarterback that you’ve never heard of, will try to guide LC to a win. Cooper averages nearly 300 yards/game and leads the ASC with 23 touchdown passes. HPU’s Adam King has 21 touchdowns … so far.
Webber International (NAIA) at Huntingdon (4-3), 1 p.m.: Two young programs meet in Montgomery, Alabama. The Hawks try to extend their unlikely three-game winning streak before closing out the season with a match up against the region’s other independent, Maryville (Tenn.).